Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 3
MarseillevParis FC
Marseille
Paris FC·
2 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Marseille60% · Match result
- Over 1.583% · Goals
- Yes59% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Marseille the most likely of the three results, at 60% (we would not be surprised by anything from 51% to 69%). Most likely is not likely: at 60% this result does not happen 40% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 52%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Marseille a 52% chance. Our model makes it 60%.
2Market
Open: 54% home · 24% draw · 23% away
Now: 52% home · 25% draw · 23% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Marseille
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Marseille
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- A. Koum Mbondo — out (Inactive)
- T. Nnadi — out (Injury)
- G. Kondogbia — out (Injury)
- I. Paixao — out (Muscle Injury)
- Q. Timber — out (Yellow Cards)
- F. Moumbagna — out (Injury)
- L. Balerdi — out (Calf Injury)
Paris FC
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- T. De Smet — out (Inactive)
- E. Mbemba — out (Inactive)
- J. Ikone — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Otavio — out (Injury)
- L. Koleosho — out (Injury)
- N. Sangui — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
MarseilleLWWWL
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Monaco 0–2(xG 1.2–1.5)
- Fri 21 Aug · H v Strasbourg 4–0
- Sun 17 May · H v Rennes 3–1
- Sun 10 May · A v Le Havre 1–0
- Sat 2 May · A v Nantes 0–3
Paris FCWDWLW
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Nice 3–0(xG 2.7–0.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Estac Troyes 0–0
- Sun 17 May · H v Paris Saint Germain 2–1
- Sun 10 May · A v Rennes 1–2
- Sun 3 May · H v Stade Brestois 29 4–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Marseille have won 3 of their last 5.
- Marseille have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Marseille's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Marseille's last 5.
- Marseille kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Paris FC have won 3 of their last 5.
- Paris FC have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Paris FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Paris FC's last 5.
- Paris FC kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 2 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 2 meetings, Marseille have won 1, Paris FC 0, with 1 drawn.
- Marseille W–D–L
- 1–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 2 of 2
- Both scored
- 2 of 2
- Paris FC 2–2 Marseille
- Marseille 5–2 Paris FC
7Context
Marseille
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Paris FC
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
CEPAC Vélodrome, Marseille · Referee: Clement Turpin, France
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Marseille vs Paris FC?
- Our model makes Marseille the most likely result at 60%. Most likely is not likely — at 60% it does not happen 40% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 52%.
- Will both teams score in Marseille vs Paris FC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance, against 41% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Marseille vs Paris FC?
- Marseille's reported absences and doubts include A. Koum Mbondo, T. Nnadi, G. Kondogbia, I. Paixao and 3 others. Paris FC's include T. De Smet, E. Mbemba, J. Ikone, Otavio and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Marseille vs Paris FC?
- Marseille line up in a 4-2-3-1, Paris FC in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Paris FC?
- In their last 2 meetings, Marseille have won 1, Paris FC 0, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of those 2 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.