Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 3
AngersvRennes
Angers
Rennes·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Rennes52% · Match result
- Over 1.578% · Goals
- Yes56% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Rennes the most likely of the three results, at 52% (we would not be surprised by anything from 44% to 60%). Most likely is not likely: at 52% this result does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 52%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Rennes a 52% chance. Our model makes it 52%.
2Market
Open: 24% home · 25% draw · 51% away
Now: 24% home · 24% draw · 52% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Rennes
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Angers
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- L. Mouton — out (Inactive)
- H. Belkebla — out (Thigh Injury)
Rennes
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- G. Oliveira — out (Inactive)
- A. Nordin — out (Inactive)
- D. Cisse — out (Inactive)
- A. Ait Boudlal — out (Inactive)
- B. Samba — out (Muscle Injury)
- S. Fofana — out (Inactive)
- M. Camara — out (Yellow Cards)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
AngersWLDDL
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Auxerre 3–1(xG 1.6–1.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Lille 0–2(xG 2.0–1.2)
- Sun 17 May · A v Stade Brestois 29 1–1
- Sun 10 May · H v Strasbourg 1–1
- Sun 3 May · A v Auxerre 1–3
RennesWDLWL
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Le Mans 3–2(xG 2.7–3.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Paris Saint Germain 2–2(xG 0.9–2.2)
- Sun 17 May · A v Marseille 1–3
- Sun 10 May · H v Paris FC 2–1
- Sun 3 May · A v Lyon 2–4
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Angers have won 1 of their last 5.
- Angers have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Angers's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Angers's last 5.
- Angers kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Rennes have won 2 of their last 5.
- Rennes have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Rennes's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Rennes's last 5.
- Rennes kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, Angers have won 1, Rennes 6, with 1 drawn.
- Angers W–D–L
- 1–1–6
- Over 2.5
- 4 of 8
- Both scored
- 4 of 8
- Rennes 2–1 Angers
- Angers 1–1 Rennes
- Angers 0–3 Rennes
- Rennes 2–0 Angers
- Rennes 4–2 Angers
- Angers 1–2 Rennes
- Rennes 2–0 Angers
- Angers 2–0 Rennes
7Context
Angers
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Rennes
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers · Referee: Geoffrey Kubler, French Guiana
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Angers vs Rennes?
- Our model makes Rennes the most likely result at 52%. Most likely is not likely — at 52% it does not happen 48% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 52%.
- Will both teams score in Angers vs Rennes?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Angers vs Rennes?
- Angers's reported absences and doubts include L. Mouton, H. Belkebla. Rennes's include G. Oliveira, A. Nordin, D. Cisse, A. Ait Boudlal and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Angers vs Rennes?
- Angers line up in a 4-2-3-1, Rennes in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Rennes?
- In their last 8 meetings, Angers have won 1, Rennes 6, with 1 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.