Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 3
Estac TroyesvStrasbourg
Estac Troyes
Strasbourg·
2 – 6 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Strasbourg53% · Match result
- Over 1.580% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: Strasbourg
Best price 2.49 at 1xBetThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 53% against a market price of 40% — 13 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 70% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 4 meetings averaged 2.8 goals.
- 13 players reported unavailable — 6 for Estac Troyes, 7 for Strasbourg.
Our forecast makes Strasbourg the most likely of the three results, at 53% (we would not be surprised by anything from 42% to 64%). Most likely is not likely: at 53% this result does not happen 47% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 40%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Strasbourg a 40% chance. Our model makes it 53%.
2Market
Open: 32% home · 28% draw · 40% away
Now: 33% home · 27% draw · 40% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Estac Troyes
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Estac Troyes
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
- A. Phliponeau — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Ifnaoui — out (Injury)
- P. Gozzi — out (Muscle Injury)
- Y. Titi — out (Injury)
- A. Fatah — out (Hamstring Injury)
- I. Boura — out (Injury)
Strasbourg
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- M. Oyedele — out (Injury)
- I. Doukoure — out (Injury)
- M. Godo — out (Muscle Injury)
- Oso — out (Transfer negotiations)
- J. Panichelli — out (Knee Injury)
- S. El Mourabet — out (Red Card)
- B. Chilwell — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Estac TroyesWDDLD
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Lorient 2–1(xG 1.6–1.1)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Paris FC 0–0
- Sat 3 Jun · H v Lille 1–1
- Sat 27 May · A v Angers 1–2
- Sun 21 May · H v Strasbourg 1–1
StrasbourgWLWWD
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Lens 2–1(xG 1.7–2.9)
- Fri 21 Aug · A v Marseille 0–4
- Sun 17 May · H v Monaco 5–4
- Wed 13 May · A v Stade Brestois 29 2–1
- Sun 10 May · A v Angers 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Estac Troyes have won 1 of their last 5.
- Estac Troyes have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Estac Troyes's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Estac Troyes's last 5.
- Estac Troyes kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Strasbourg have won 3 of their last 5.
- Strasbourg have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Strasbourg's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Strasbourg's last 5.
- Strasbourg kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 4 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 4 meetings, Estac Troyes have won 1, Strasbourg 0, with 3 drawn.
- Estac Troyes W–D–L
- 1–3–0
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 4
- Both scored
- 4 of 4
- Estac Troyes 1–1 Strasbourg
- Strasbourg 2–3 Estac Troyes
- Estac Troyes 1–1 Strasbourg
- Strasbourg 1–1 Estac Troyes
7Context
Estac Troyes
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Strasbourg
Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d
Stade de l'Aube, Troyes · Referee: Guillaume Paradis, France
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg?
- Our model makes Strasbourg the most likely result at 53%. Most likely is not likely — at 53% it does not happen 47% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 40%.
- Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg?
- Estac Troyes's reported absences and doubts include A. Phliponeau, M. Ifnaoui, P. Gozzi, Y. Titi and 2 others. Strasbourg's include M. Oyedele, I. Doukoure, M. Godo, Oso and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg?
- Estac Troyes line up in a 4-1-4-1, Strasbourg in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Strasbourg?
- In their last 4 meetings, Estac Troyes have won 1, Strasbourg 0, with 3 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 4 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.