Published forecasts

Every forecast we have published, in the order we published it. Each row carries a hash of itself and the row before, so changing a probability after a match has been played would break every hash after it. That is what stops us quietly revising a number and claiming we always said it — and you do not have to take our word for the check, it runs when you load this page.

The published forecasts for Puebla v Toluca

These are the forecasts we published for this fixture, hash-chained so a number we wrote before kick-off cannot be quietly changed afterwards.

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Chain intact across all 1249 published forecasts.

Daily seals

At the end of each day we write that day's final hash to separate storage. The chain alone would catch a single altered forecast, but not a wholesale rebuild from edited rows — evidence kept in the same place as the thing it attests to proves less than it appears to. Note a seal today and you can hold us to it later.

#PublishedMatchH / D / AResultHash
9922026-09-04 01:06Puebla vToluca13% / 23% / 65%not playedefcedd07c41b
9422026-09-04 00:06Puebla vToluca14% / 24% / 63%not played0a7239534108
7272026-09-03 04:06Puebla vToluca16% / 21% / 63%not playedc4cdb928b5a2
5682026-09-02 12:07Puebla vToluca16% / 21% / 63%not played75f582b8b441

The result column pairs the outcome we called (our most-likely of home / draw / away, with its probability) against what actually happened — a verdict, not a score: a 60% call missing is not a failure. Whether the probabilities are any good is a separate question, answered on the accuracy page. This page only shows that we have not changed our mind about them afterwards.