Liga MX · Apertura - 7
PueblavToluca
Puebla
Toluca·
1Headline
We expect
0–30.7–1.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 0–1 (14%), then 0-2 (14%), 1-1 (11%). Puebla and Toluca finish on some other score 61% of the time. We show 0–3 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Pue / Tol | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Puebla down the side and Toluca across. These 98.9% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.1% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Toluca65% · Match result
- Over 1.575% · Goals
- No50% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Both teams to score: No
Best price 2.55 at BetfairThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 50% against a market price of 40% — 10 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 90% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.1 goals, and 1.6 expected across the 1 we have expected goals for.
- Both sides scored in 7 of those 10.
Our forecast makes Toluca the most likely of the three results, at 65% (we would not be surprised by anything from 52% to 77%). Most likely is not likely: at 65% this result does not happen 35% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 58%.
Verify this forecast → Published Yesterday, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Toluca a 58% chance. Our model makes it 65%.
2Market
Open: 20% home · 22% draw · 58% away
Now: 20% home · 22% draw · 58% away
Solid: the market over 7 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Puebla
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
Toluca
Lineup not yet confirmed
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
PueblaLWWDL
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Club America 0–2(xG 0.8–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Santos Laguna 3–2
- Tue 18 Aug · A v CF Pachuca 3–2
- Sat 1 Aug · H v Guadalajara Chivas 1–1
- Wed 22 Jul · A v Cruz Azul 1–2
TolucaWWDWL
- Mon 31 Aug · H v FC Juarez 4–0
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Club Queretaro 2–1
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Atlante FC 0–0
- Mon 3 Aug · H v Necaxa 3–1
- Wed 22 Jul · H v U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going, and how these two have met — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter.
- Puebla have won 2 of their last 5.
- Puebla have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Puebla's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Puebla's last 5.
- Puebla kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Toluca have won 3 of their last 5.
- Toluca have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Toluca's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Toluca's last 5.
- Toluca kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 0 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Puebla
Rest: 17 days · 0 matches in 14d
Toluca
Rest: 16 days · 0 matches in 14d
Venue unconfirmed
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Puebla vs Toluca?
- Our model makes Toluca the most likely result at 65%. Most likely is not likely — at 65% it does not happen 35% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 58%.
- Will both teams score in Puebla vs Toluca?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance, against 50% that at least one side is kept out.