La Liga · Regular Season - 6
Atletico MadridvOsasuna
Atletico Madrid
Osasuna·
4 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.0–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (11%), then 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%). Atletico Madrid and Osasuna finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Atl / Osa | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Atletico Madrid down the side and Osasuna across. These 98.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 32% against 32%.
What we think
- Atletico Madrid62% · Match result
- Over 2.554% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Both teams to score: Yes
Best price 2.09 at MarathonbetThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 53% against a market price of 46% — 7 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 70% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.9 goals, and 2.7 expected across the 5 we have expected goals for.
- Both sides scored in 4 of those 10.
- Their last 10 meetings averaged 2.2 goals.
- 12 players reported unavailable — 8 for Atletico Madrid, 4 for Osasuna.
Our forecast makes Atletico Madrid the most likely of the three results, at 62% (we would not be surprised by anything from 54% to 71%). Most likely is not likely: at 62% this result does not happen 38% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 70%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sun 13 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 54%, which is what the market has it at too (54%).
For comparison, the market gives Atletico Madrid a 70% chance. Our model makes it 62%.
2Market
Open: 69% home · 20% draw · 12% away
Now: 70% home · 20% draw · 11% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Osasuna
Solid: the market over 12 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- C. Romero — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- T. Lemar — out (Coach's decision)
- J. Alvarez — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- A. Sorloth — out (Muscle Injury)
- S. Esteban — doubtful (Injury)
- P. Barrios — out (Muscle Injury)
- R. Le Normand — out (Red Card)
- O. Vargas — out (Coach's decision)
Osasuna
Confirmed · 5-4-1
- J. Herrando — out (Muscle Injury)
- V. Rosier — out (Hamstring Injury)
- M. Gomez — out (Hamstring Injury)
- A. Oroz — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Atletico MadridWLWDW
- Sun 13 Sep · A v Real Sociedad 3–0
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Athletic Club 0–3
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Sevilla 3–1(xG 0.9–1.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Villarreal 2–2(xG 0.8–3.6)
- Wed 19 Aug · H v Malaga 2–0
OsasunaLLWWD
- Sat 12 Sep · H v Espanyol 0–2
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Alaves 2–5
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Getafe 1–0(xG 1.7–0.7)
- Thu 27 Aug · A v Celta Vigo 2–1(xG 2.7–0.1)
- Mon 24 Aug · H v Levante 0–0(xG 0.7–1.3)
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Atletico Madrid have won 3 of their last 5.
- Atletico Madrid have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Atletico Madrid's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Atletico Madrid's last 5.
- Atletico Madrid kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Osasuna have won 2 of their last 5.
- Osasuna have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Osasuna's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Osasuna's last 5.
- Osasuna kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Atletico Madrid have won 8, Osasuna 2, with 0 drawn.
- Atletico Madrid W–D–L
- 8–0–2
- Over 2.5
- 4 of 10
- Both scored
- 2 of 10
- Osasuna 1–2 Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid 1–0 Osasuna
- Osasuna 2–0 Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid 1–0 Osasuna
- Atletico Madrid 1–4 Osasuna
- Osasuna 0–2 Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid 3–0 Osasuna
- Osasuna 0–1 Atletico Madrid
- Osasuna 0–3 Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid 1–0 Osasuna
7Context
Atletico Madrid
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Osasuna
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid · Referee: Francisco Hernandez Maeso, Spain
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
- Our model makes Atletico Madrid the most likely result at 62%. Most likely is not likely — at 62% it does not happen 38% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 70%.
- How many goals are expected in Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 54%, and under 2.5 at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
- Atletico Madrid's reported absences and doubts include C. Romero, T. Lemar, J. Alvarez, A. Sorloth and 4 others. Osasuna's include J. Herrando, V. Rosier, M. Gomez, A. Oroz. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
- Atletico Madrid line up in a 4-4-2, Osasuna in a 5-4-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Osasuna?
- In their last 10 meetings, Atletico Madrid have won 8, Osasuna 2, with 0 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.