La Liga · Regular Season - 5

OsasunavEspanyol

·

0 – 2 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

2–11.5–1.1 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%). Osasuna and Espanyol finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.

Probability of each scoreline, Osasuna goals down the side, Espanyol across
Osa / Esp012345
088420.40.1
11113620.60.1
299520.40.1
34520.80.20.0
4220.90.30.10.0
50.50.50.30.10.00.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Osasuna down the side and Espanyol across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

How many goals

Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.

Over 1.5
Over 1.5:, our forecast 75%, market 69%
Over 2.5
Over 2.5:, our forecast 51%, market 42%
Over 3.5
Over 3.5:, our forecast 28%, market 21%

We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 51% against 42%.

What we think

  • Osasuna47% · Match result
  • Over 2.551% · Goals
  • Yes54% · Both teams to score

Our bet on this match

Goals over 2.5: Over 2.5

Best price 2.35 at PinnacleThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.

  • We make this 51% against a market price of 42% — 9 points of difference.
  • Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 72% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
  • Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.5 goals, and 2.4 expected across the 4 we have expected goals for.
  • Their last 8 meetings averaged 1.4 goals.
  • 11 players reported unavailable — 4 for Osasuna, 7 for Espanyol.
  • The price has moved 2.7% away from Osasuna since it opened.

Our forecast makes Osasuna the most likely of the three results, at 47% (we would not be surprised by anything from 39% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 47% this result does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 42%.

Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 51%, against the market’s 42% — a 9 point gap.

For comparison, the market gives Osasuna a 42% chance. Our model makes it 47%.

OsasunaModel 47% [39%–55%]Market 42%
Osasuna:, our forecast 47%, between 39% and 55%, market 42%

2Market

Open: 45% home · 29% draw · 26% away

Now: 42% home · 30% draw · 27% away

Moved −3pp — the market moved away from Osasuna

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home47%vs42%+5pp
Draw27%vs30%−3pp
Away26%vs27%−1pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Over 2.551%vs42%+9pp
Under 2.549%vs58%−9pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.575%vs69%+6pp
Under 1.525%vs31%−6pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Over 3.528%vs21%+7pp
Under 3.572%vs79%−7pp

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes54%vs49%+5pp
No46%vs51%−5pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Osasuna

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

  • J. Herrando — out (Muscle Injury)
  • V. Rosier — out (Hamstring Injury)
  • M. Gomez — out (Hamstring Injury)
  • A. Oroz — out (Muscle Injury)

Espanyol

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

  • O. El Hilali — out (Red Card)
  • Jofre — out (Groin Injury)
  • A. Gorosabel — out (Injury)
  • B. Zaragoza — out (Knee Injury)
  • J. Puado — out (Knee Injury)
  • K. Garcia — out (Hamstring Injury)
  • L. Cabrera — out (Red Card)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

OsasunaLWWDL

  • Sun 6 Sep · A v Alaves 2–5
  • Mon 31 Aug · H v Getafe 1–0(xG 1.7–0.7)
  • Thu 27 Aug · A v Celta Vigo 2–1(xG 2.7–0.1)
  • Mon 24 Aug · H v Levante 0–0(xG 0.7–1.3)
  • Sat 23 May · A v Getafe 0–1

EspanyolDLLWD

  • Sun 6 Sep · H v Sevilla 1–1
  • Sat 29 Aug · A v Real Sociedad 1–2(xG 0.8–1.7)
  • Sat 22 Aug · H v Real Madrid 1–2
  • Sun 16 Aug · H v Levante 3–0
  • Sat 23 May · H v Real Sociedad 1–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Osasuna
  • Osasuna have won 2 of their last 5.
  • Osasuna have scored in 3 of their last 5.
  • 2 of Osasuna's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of Osasuna's last 5.
  • Osasuna kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
Espanyol
  • Espanyol have won 1 of their last 5.
  • Espanyol have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 3 of Espanyol's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of Espanyol's last 5.
  • Espanyol kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

In their last 8 meetings, Osasuna have won 2, Espanyol 2, with 4 drawn.

Osasuna W–D–L
2–4–2
Over 2.5
1 of 8
Both scored
3 of 8
  • Osasuna 1–2 Espanyol
  • Espanyol 1–0 Osasuna
  • Osasuna 2–0 Espanyol
  • Espanyol 0–0 Osasuna
  • Espanyol 1–1 Osasuna
  • Osasuna 1–0 Espanyol
  • Espanyol 1–1 Osasuna
  • Osasuna 0–0 Espanyol

7Context

Osasuna

Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d

Espanyol

Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d

Estadio El Sadar, Iruñea · Referee: Luis Bestard Servera, Spain

8Red flags

No flags raised for this fixture right now.

Common questions

Who will win Osasuna vs Espanyol?
Our model makes Osasuna the most likely result at 47%. Most likely is not likely — at 47% it does not happen 53% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 42%.
How many goals are expected in Osasuna vs Espanyol?
Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 51%, and under 2.5 at 49%.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Espanyol?
Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Osasuna vs Espanyol?
Osasuna's reported absences and doubts include J. Herrando, V. Rosier, M. Gomez, A. Oroz. Espanyol's include O. El Hilali, Jofre, A. Gorosabel, B. Zaragoza and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Osasuna vs Espanyol?
Osasuna line up in a 4-2-3-1, Espanyol in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Espanyol?
In their last 8 meetings, Osasuna have won 2, Espanyol 2, with 4 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 3.