La Liga · Regular Season - 5
Real MadridvRayo Vallecano
Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano·
4 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.2–0.8 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–0 (12%), then 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Rea / Ray | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Real Madrid down the side and Rayo Vallecano across. These 97.4% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.6% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 35% against 56%.
What we think
- Real Madrid70% · Match result
- Over 2.559% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
A half-Kelly stake at the cautious end of our range would be 2.00% of a bankroll, at odds of 2.18. Sizing, not advice: it assumes you can get that price, it is computed at 51% rather than our headline number, and it is halved and capped because the probability is an estimate and no single match should be able to matter much.
- We make this 65% against a market price of 44% — 21 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 89% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.9 goals, and 3.6 expected across the 3 we have expected goals for.
- Their last 10 meetings averaged 2.6 goals.
- 17 players reported unavailable — 7 for Real Madrid, 10 for Rayo Vallecano.
Our forecast makes Real Madrid the most likely of the three results, at 70% (we would not be surprised by anything from 62% to 76%). Most likely is not likely: at 70% this result does not happen 30% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 86%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 59%, against the market’s 76% — a 17 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Real Madrid a 86% chance. Our model makes it 70%.
2Market
Open: 87% home · 9% draw · 4% away
Now: 86% home · 10% draw · 4% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Real Madrid
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Real Madrid
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- R. Asencio — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Tchouameni — out (Muscle Injury)
- Endrick — out (Muscle Injury)
- Rodrygo — out (Knee Injury)
- T. Pitarch — out (Knee Injury)
- F. Mendy — out (Hip Injury)
- Eder Militao — out (Hamstring Injury)
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- J. de Frutos — out (Red Card)
- F. Perez — out (Red Card)
- R. Nteka — out (Muscle Injury)
- I. Balliu — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Kumbulla — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Vertrouwd — out (Muscle Injury)
- I. Palazon — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Batalla — out (Broken calfbone)
- D. Mendez — out (Knee Injury)
- Luiz Felipe — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Real MadridLWWWW
- Fri 4 Sep · A v Real Betis 0–1
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Malaga 4–0(xG 2.3–0.7)
- Wed 26 Aug · H v Real Sociedad 4–1(xG 3.1–0.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Espanyol 2–1
- Sat 23 May · H v Athletic Club 4–2
Rayo VallecanoWLDLW
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Racing Santander 3–2
- Mon 31 Aug · A v Barcelona 2–5(xG 1.1–2.8)
- Thu 20 Aug · H v Alaves 1–1
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Sevilla 1–2
- Sat 23 May · A v Alaves 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Real Madrid have won 4 of their last 5.
- Real Madrid have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Real Madrid's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Real Madrid's last 5.
- Real Madrid kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Rayo Vallecano have won 2 of their last 5.
- Rayo Vallecano have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Rayo Vallecano's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Rayo Vallecano's last 5.
- Rayo Vallecano kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Real Madrid have won 5, Rayo Vallecano 1, with 4 drawn.
- Real Madrid W–D–L
- 5–4–1
- Over 2.5
- 6 of 10
- Both scored
- 7 of 10
- Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano 0–0 Real Madrid
- Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano 3–3 Real Madrid
- Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Real Madrid
- Real Madrid 0–0 Rayo Vallecano
- Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano 3–2 Real Madrid
- Rayo Vallecano 0–1 Real Madrid
- Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano
7Context
Real Madrid
Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d
Rayo Vallecano
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Bernabéu, Madrid · Referee: Victor Garcia Verdura, Spain
8Red flags
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
- Our model makes Real Madrid the most likely result at 70%. Most likely is not likely — at 70% it does not happen 30% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 86%.
- How many goals are expected in Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 59%, and under 2.5 at 41%.
- Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
- Real Madrid's reported absences and doubts include R. Asencio, A. Tchouameni, Endrick, Rodrygo and 3 others. Rayo Vallecano's include J. de Frutos, F. Perez, R. Nteka, I. Balliu and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
- Real Madrid line up in a 4-2-3-1, Rayo Vallecano in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano?
- In their last 10 meetings, Real Madrid have won 5, Rayo Vallecano 1, with 4 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 7.