Championship · Regular Season - 7
West BromvQPR
West Brom
QPR·
1 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.5–0.9 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–0 (13%), then 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (10%). West Brom and QPR finish on some other score 64% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Wes / QPR | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, West Brom down the side and QPR across. These 99.5% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.5% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 26% against 30%.
What we think
- West Brom50% · Match result
- Under 2.551% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes West Brom the most likely of the three results, at 50% (we would not be surprised by anything from 44% to 57%). Most likely is not likely: at 50% this result does not happen 50% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 46%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 49%, against the market’s 52% — a 3 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives West Brom a 46% chance. Our model makes it 50%.
2Market
Open: 50% home · 25% draw · 25% away
Now: 46% home · 28% draw · 26% away
Moved −4pp — the market moved away from West Brom
Solid: the market over 11 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
West Brom
Confirmed · 4-3-2-1
- N. Galves — out (Knee Injury)
- B. Pereira — out (Red Card)
- M. Johnston — out (Broken Leg)
- T. Bany — out (Inactive)
QPR
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- J. Obikwu — out (Inactive)
- J. Dunne — out (Knee Injury)
- T. Lamptey — out (Injury)
- R. Kone — out (Injury)
- B. Kemper — out (Ankle Injury)
- I. Chair — out (Injury)
- R. Kolli — out (Coach's decision)
- K. Dembele — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
West BromWWDLW
- Wed 9 Sep · A v Derby 1–0
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Watford 1–0
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Charlton 1–1(xG 0.6–0.4)
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Middlesbrough 1–3(xG 1.4–2.5)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Burnley 3–1
QPRDLWWD
- Wed 9 Sep · A v Charlton 0–0
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Middlesbrough 0–1
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Cardiff 2–1(xG 2.1–0.6)
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Blackburn 2–1(xG 1.3–1.0)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Bolton 0–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- West Brom have won 3 of their last 5.
- West Brom have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of West Brom's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of West Brom's last 5.
- West Brom kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- QPR have won 2 of their last 5.
- QPR have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 2 of QPR's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of QPR's last 5.
- QPR kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
West Brom
Rest: 3 days · 4 matches in 14d
QPR
Rest: 3 days · 4 matches in 14d
The Hawthorns, West Bromwich · Referee: Ruebyn Ricardo, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win West Brom vs QPR?
- Our model makes West Brom the most likely result at 50%. Most likely is not likely — at 50% it does not happen 50% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 46%.
- How many goals are expected in West Brom vs QPR?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 49%, and under 2.5 at 51%.
- Will both teams score in West Brom vs QPR?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for West Brom vs QPR?
- West Brom's reported absences and doubts include N. Galves, B. Pereira, M. Johnston, T. Bany. QPR's include J. Obikwu, J. Dunne, T. Lamptey, R. Kone and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for West Brom vs QPR?
- West Brom line up in a 4-3-2-1, QPR in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.