Championship · Regular Season - 7
MiddlesbroughvNorwich
Middlesbrough
Norwich·
4 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.8–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Middlesbrough and Norwich finish on some other score 68% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Mid / Nor | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Middlesbrough down the side and Norwich across. These 99.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 53% against 61%.
What we think
- Middlesbrough54% · Match result
- Over 2.553% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 68% against a market price of 62% — 6 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 66% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.9 goals, and 2.9 expected across the 3 we have expected goals for.
- 15 players reported unavailable — 8 for Middlesbrough, 7 for Norwich.
- Norwich has played four or more matches in the past fortnight.
Our forecast makes Middlesbrough the most likely of the three results, at 54% (we would not be surprised by anything from 47% to 61%). Most likely is not likely: at 54% this result does not happen 46% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 52%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 53%, against the market’s 61% — a 8 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Middlesbrough a 52% chance. Our model makes it 54%.
2Market
Open: 52% home · 24% draw · 24% away
Now: 52% home · 24% draw · 24% away
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Middlesbrough
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- D. Strelec — out (Transfer negotiations)
- A. Jones — out (Inactive)
- J. Sarmiento — out (Inactive)
- R. Pukstas — out (Transfer negotiations)
- A. Phillips — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- A. Bangura — out (Coach's decision)
- A. Morris — out (Injury)
- T. Conway — out (Ankle Injury)
Norwich
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- J. Makama — out (Foot Injury)
- P. Maghoma — out (Calf Injury)
- M. Topic — out (Knee Injury)
- L. Mahovo — out (Ankle Injury)
- A. Crnac — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- A. Ahmed — out (Knee Injury)
- L. Gibbs — out (Muscle Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
MiddlesbroughWDWLW
- Sat 5 Sep · A v QPR 1–0
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Burnley 1–1(xG 1.2–0.6)
- Sat 29 Aug · H v West Brom 3–1(xG 2.5–1.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Blackburn 1–2
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Lincoln 2–1
NorwichWWLWL
- Wed 9 Sep · H v Birmingham 2–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Sheffield Utd 3–1
- Tue 1 Sep · A v Stoke City 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Burnley 4–1(xG 1.9–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Millwall 0–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Middlesbrough have won 3 of their last 5.
- Middlesbrough have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Middlesbrough's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Middlesbrough's last 5.
- Middlesbrough kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Norwich have won 3 of their last 5.
- Norwich have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of Norwich's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Norwich's last 5.
- Norwich kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Middlesbrough
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Norwich
Rest: 3 days · 4 matches in 14d
Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough · Referee: Adam Herczeg, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Middlesbrough vs Norwich?
- Our model makes Middlesbrough the most likely result at 54%. Most likely is not likely — at 54% it does not happen 46% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 52%.
- How many goals are expected in Middlesbrough vs Norwich?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 53%, and under 2.5 at 47%.
- Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Norwich?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Middlesbrough vs Norwich?
- Middlesbrough's reported absences and doubts include D. Strelec, A. Jones, J. Sarmiento, R. Pukstas and 4 others. Norwich's include J. Makama, P. Maghoma, M. Topic, L. Mahovo and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Middlesbrough vs Norwich?
- Middlesbrough line up in a 3-4-2-1, Norwich in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.