Championship · Regular Season - 7
BlackburnvMillwall
Blackburn
Millwall·
3 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.2–1.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Blackburn and Millwall finish on some other score 62% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Bla / Mil | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Blackburn down the side and Millwall across. These 99.8% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.2% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 24% against 28%.
What we think
- Blackburn38% · Match result
- Under 2.554% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Goals over 3.5: Under 3.5
- We make this 76% against a market price of 72% — 4 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 66% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 3.0 goals, and 2.6 expected across the 3 we have expected goals for.
- 28 players reported unavailable — 12 for Blackburn, 16 for Millwall.
- Blackburn has played four or more matches in the past fortnight.
- The price has moved 3.4% away from Millwall since it opened.
Our forecast makes Blackburn the most likely of the three results, at 38% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 43%). Most likely is not likely: at 38% this result does not happen 62% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Millwall the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 35%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 46%, against the market’s 50% — a 4 point gap.
For comparison, the market gives Millwall a 36% chance. Our model makes it 32%.
2Market
Open: 33% home · 28% draw · 40% away
Now: 35% home · 28% draw · 36% away
Moved −4pp — the market moved away from Millwall
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Blackburn
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- M. Jorgensen — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Y. Ribeiro — out (Injury)
- A. Forshaw — out (Injury)
- S. Wharton — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- H. Pickering — out (Inactive)
- M. Litherland — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Atcheson — out (Red Card)
- Y. Ohashi — out (Inactive)
- L. Miller — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- A. Kargbo — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. De Neve — out (Injury)
- M. Baradji — out (Hamstring Injury)
Millwall
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- K. Lisbie — out (Injury)
- L. Jensen — out (Injury)
- T. Crama — out (Ankle Injury)
- R. Esse — out (Ankle Injury)
- R. Leonard — out (Hamstring Injury)
- M. Luongo — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Sykes — doubtful (Injury)
- J. Metcalfe — out (Red Card)
- C. De Norre — out (Injury)
- J. Coburn — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. Cundle — out (Inactive)
- F. Azeez — out (Abdominal strain)
- M. Servais — out (Hamstring Injury)
- D. Mazou-Sacko — out (Calf Injury)
- M. Ivanovic — out (Hamstring Injury)
- A. Doughty — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
BlackburnLLDLW
- Tue 8 Sep · H v Sheffield Utd 1–2
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Preston 1–2
- Tue 1 Sep · A v Lincoln 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v QPR 1–2(xG 1.0–1.3)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Middlesbrough 2–1
MillwallWLLWW
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Bolton 4–0
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Wrexham 0–3(xG 0.2–0.9)
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Southampton 1–5(xG 1.1–3.2)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Norwich 3–0
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Bristol City 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Blackburn have won 1 of their last 5.
- Blackburn have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Blackburn's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Blackburn's last 5.
- Blackburn kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Millwall have won 3 of their last 5.
- Millwall have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Millwall's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Millwall's last 5.
- Millwall kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Blackburn
Rest: 4 days · 4 matches in 14d
Millwall
Rest: 7 days · 3 matches in 14d
Ewood Park, Blackburn · Referee: Josh Smith, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Blackburn vs Millwall?
- Our model makes Blackburn the most likely result at 38%. Most likely is not likely — at 38% it does not happen 62% of the time. The market instead favours Millwall at 36%.
- How many goals are expected in Blackburn vs Millwall?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 46%, and under 2.5 at 54%.
- Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Millwall?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Blackburn vs Millwall?
- Blackburn's reported absences and doubts include M. Jorgensen, Y. Ribeiro, A. Forshaw, S. Wharton and 8 others. Millwall's include K. Lisbie, L. Jensen, T. Crama, R. Esse and 12 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Blackburn vs Millwall?
- Blackburn line up in a 4-2-3-1, Millwall in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.