Championship · Regular Season - 7
SwanseavBurnley
Swansea
Burnley·
3 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.2–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Swansea and Burnley finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Swa / Bur | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Swansea down the side and Burnley across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 28% against 29%.
What we think
- Burnley40% · Match result
- Over 2.550% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Burnley the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 49%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Swansea the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 27%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more more likely than not at 50%, which is what the market has it at too (51%).
For comparison, the market gives Swansea a 46% chance. Our model makes it 32%.
2Market
Open: 44% home · 27% draw · 29% away
Now: 46% home · 27% draw · 27% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Swansea
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Swansea
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- J. Key — out (Health problems)
- B. Cabango — out (Inactive)
- G. Franco — out (Ankle Injury)
- R. Stewart — out (Injury)
- C. Burgess — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
Burnley
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- A. Ramsey — out (Hamstring Injury)
- H. Mejbri — out (Inactive)
- J. Bruun Larsen — out (Injury)
- D. Satpaev — out (Hamstring Injury)
- L. Foster — out (Inactive)
- O. Sonne — doubtful (Inactive)
- Lucas Pires — out (Inactive)
- J. Laurent — out (Red Card)
- B. Humphreys — out (Inactive)
- J. Cullen — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Beyer — out (Hamstring Injury)
- A. Barnes — out (Injury)
- J. Banel — out (Injury)
- E. Agyei — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
SwanseaLDWWD
- Tue 8 Sep · A v Southampton 1–3
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Wrexham 0–0
- Tue 1 Sep · H v Watford 2–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Derby 3–0(xG 3.3–0.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Sheffield Utd 0–0
BurnleyDLDLL
- Tue 8 Sep · A v Wrexham 1–1
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Bristol City 1–2
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Middlesbrough 1–1(xG 0.6–1.2)
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Norwich 1–4(xG 0.9–1.9)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v West Brom 1–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Swansea have won 2 of their last 5.
- Swansea have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 2 of Swansea's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Swansea's last 5.
- Swansea kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5.
- Burnley have won 0 of their last 5.
- Burnley have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Burnley's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Burnley's last 5.
- Burnley kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Swansea
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
Burnley
Rest: 4 days · 4 matches in 14d
Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea · Referee: James Bell, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Swansea vs Burnley?
- Our model makes Burnley the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market instead favours Swansea at 46%.
- How many goals are expected in Swansea vs Burnley?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Swansea vs Burnley?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Swansea vs Burnley?
- Swansea's reported absences and doubts include J. Key, B. Cabango, G. Franco, R. Stewart and 1 other. Burnley's include A. Ramsey, H. Mejbri, J. Bruun Larsen, D. Satpaev and 10 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Swansea vs Burnley?
- Swansea line up in a 4-2-3-1, Burnley in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.