Championship · Regular Season - 7
PrestonvLincoln
Preston
Lincoln·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
0–11.1–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Preston and Lincoln finish on some other score 66% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Pre / Lin | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Preston down the side and Lincoln across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 3.5: 27% against 29%.
What we think
- Lincoln42% · Match result
- Under 2.550% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Lincoln the most likely of the three results, at 42% (we would not be surprised by anything from 24% to 61%). Most likely is not likely: at 42% this result does not happen 58% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Preston the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 32%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 50%, which is what the market has it at too (50%).
For comparison, the market gives Preston a 41% chance. Our model makes it 30%.
2Market
Open: 41% home · 27% draw · 32% away
Now: 41% home · 27% draw · 32% away
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Preston
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- B. Potts — out (Ankle Injury)
- T. Carroll — out (Ankle Injury)
- A. Hughes — out (Inactive)
- A. McCann — out (Injury)
- L. Gibson — out (Red Card)
Lincoln
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- T. Hamer — out (Health problems)
- M. Melia — out (Thigh Injury)
- S. Bradley — out (Knock)
- T. Darikwa — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Collins — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Jackson — out (Surgery)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
PrestonLWLLL
- Tue 8 Sep · A v Watford 1–2
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Blackburn 2–1
- Tue 1 Sep · H v Bristol City 1–3
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Charlton 0–1(xG 0.9–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Wolves 1–3
LincolnDDWLL
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Southampton 1–1
- Tue 1 Sep · H v Blackburn 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Bolton 1–0(xG 1.1–1.5)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Portsmouth 1–3
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Middlesbrough 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Preston have won 1 of their last 5.
- Preston have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Preston's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Preston's last 5.
- Preston kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Lincoln have won 1 of their last 5.
- Lincoln have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Lincoln's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Lincoln's last 5.
- Lincoln kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Preston
Rest: 4 days · 4 matches in 14d
Lincoln
Rest: 7 days · 3 matches in 14d
Deepdale, Preston · Referee: Steve Martin, England
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Preston vs Lincoln?
- Our model makes Lincoln the most likely result at 42%. Most likely is not likely — at 42% it does not happen 58% of the time. The market instead favours Preston at 41%.
- How many goals are expected in Preston vs Lincoln?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 50%, and under 2.5 at 50%.
- Will both teams score in Preston vs Lincoln?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Preston vs Lincoln?
- Preston's reported absences and doubts include B. Potts, T. Carroll, A. Hughes, A. McCann and 1 other. Lincoln's include T. Hamer, M. Melia, S. Bradley, T. Darikwa and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Preston vs Lincoln?
- Preston line up in a 4-4-2, Lincoln in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.