Championship · Regular Season - 7
DerbyvBirmingham
Derby
Birmingham·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–01.3–1.0 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (14%), then 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (10%). Derby and Birmingham finish on some other score 64% of the time.
Our calls on this match cannot all be right at once, so the score above sets both teams to score aside. Each is the likelier side of its own market and each is close to even; no single scoreline satisfies all of them together.
| Der / Bir | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Derby down the side and Birmingham across. These 99.7% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.3% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
How many goals
Our forecast at each line, against the price at the same line.
We differ from the market most at Over 2.5: 49% against 46%.
What we think
- Derby44% · Match result
- Under 2.551% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 11 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Derby the most likely of the three results, at 44% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 50%). Most likely is not likely: at 44% this result does not happen 56% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Birmingham the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 27%.
Verify this forecast → Published Sat 12 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals, we make three or more less likely than not at 49%, which is what the market has it at too (46%).
For comparison, the market gives Birmingham a 45% chance. Our model makes it 28%.
2Market
Open: 29% home · 28% draw · 43% away
Now: 27% home · 29% draw · 45% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Derby
Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Derby
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- L. Travis — out (Leg Injury)
- C. Morris — out (Calf Injury)
- J. Widell Zetterstrom — out (Knee Injury)
- H. Meister — out (Injury)
- F. Bilbija — out (Back Injury)
- C. Forsyth — out (Knee Injury)
- R. Brewster — out (Injury)
- M. Clarke — out (Calf Injury)
- S. Szmodics — out (Thigh Injury)
- D. Murkin — out (Hamstring Injury)
- P. Agyemang — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
Birmingham
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- P. Roberts — out (Health problems)
- D. Gray — out (Injury)
- S. Wright — out (Off the roster)
- J. E. Solis Romero — out (Inactive)
- L. Buchanan — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Bird — out (Inactive)
- M. Leonard — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- T. Gardner-Hickman — out (Injury)
- M. Ducksch — out (Calf Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
DerbyLLWLD
- Wed 9 Sep · H v West Brom 0–1
- Sat 5 Sep · A v West Ham 0–3
- Tue 1 Sep · A v Portsmouth 2–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Swansea 0–3(xG 0.6–3.3)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Cardiff 2–2
BirminghamLDDWD
- Wed 9 Sep · A v Norwich 1–2
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Wolves 2–2
- Tue 1 Sep · H v Southampton 1–1
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Wrexham 2–1(xG 1.6–1.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Bristol City 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Derby have won 1 of their last 5.
- Derby have scored in 2 of their last 5.
- 3 of Derby's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Derby's last 5.
- Derby kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Birmingham have won 1 of their last 5.
- Birmingham have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Birmingham's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Birmingham's last 5.
- Birmingham kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Derby
Rest: 3 days · 4 matches in 14d
Birmingham
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Pride Park, Derby · Referee: John Busby, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Derby vs Birmingham?
- Our model makes Derby the most likely result at 44%. Most likely is not likely — at 44% it does not happen 56% of the time. The market instead favours Birmingham at 45%.
- How many goals are expected in Derby vs Birmingham?
- Our model puts the chance of three or more goals (over 2.5) at 49%, and under 2.5 at 51%.
- Will both teams score in Derby vs Birmingham?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Derby vs Birmingham?
- Derby's reported absences and doubts include L. Travis, C. Morris, J. Widell Zetterstrom, H. Meister and 7 others. Birmingham's include P. Roberts, D. Gray, S. Wright, J. E. Solis Romero and 5 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Derby vs Birmingham?
- Derby line up in a 4-2-3-1, Birmingham in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.