Championship · Regular Season - 6
NorwichvBirmingham
Norwich
Birmingham·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Norwich45% · Match result
- Over 1.576% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Norwich the most likely of the three results, at 45% (we would not be surprised by anything from 39% to 52%). Most likely is not likely: at 45% this result does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 51%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Norwich a 51% chance. Our model makes it 45%.
2Market
Open: 49% home · 26% draw · 25% away
Now: 51% home · 26% draw · 23% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Birmingham
Solid: the market over 8 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Norwich
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- J. Makama — out (Foot Injury)
- P. Maghoma — out (Calf Injury)
- M. Topic — out (Knee Injury)
- L. Mahovo — out (Ankle Injury)
- A. Crnac — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- A. Ahmed — out (Knee Injury)
- L. Gibbs — out (Muscle Injury)
Birmingham
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- P. Roberts — out (Health problems)
- D. Gray — out (Injury)
- S. Wright — out (Off the roster)
- J. E. Solis Romero — out (Inactive)
- L. Buchanan — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Bird — out (Inactive)
- M. Leonard — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- T. Gardner-Hickman — out (Injury)
- M. Ducksch — out (Calf Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
NorwichWLWLL
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Sheffield Utd 3–1
- Tue 1 Sep · A v Stoke City 0–1
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Burnley 4–1(xG 1.9–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Millwall 0–3
- Sat 15 Aug · H v West Brom 1–2
BirminghamDDWDD
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Wolves 2–2
- Tue 1 Sep · H v Southampton 1–1
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Wrexham 2–1(xG 1.6–1.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Bristol City 2–2
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Sheffield Utd 0–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Norwich have won 2 of their last 5.
- Norwich have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of Norwich's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Norwich's last 5.
- Norwich kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Birmingham have won 1 of their last 5.
- Birmingham have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Birmingham's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Birmingham's last 5.
- Birmingham kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Norwich
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
Birmingham
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Carrow Road, Norwich, Norfolk · Referee: Tom Reeves, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Norwich vs Birmingham?
- Our model makes Norwich the most likely result at 45%. Most likely is not likely — at 45% it does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 51%.
- Will both teams score in Norwich vs Birmingham?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Norwich vs Birmingham?
- Norwich's reported absences and doubts include J. Makama, P. Maghoma, M. Topic, L. Mahovo and 3 others. Birmingham's include P. Roberts, D. Gray, S. Wright, J. E. Solis Romero and 5 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Norwich vs Birmingham?
- Norwich line up in a 4-2-3-1, Birmingham in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.