Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 24
Atlanta United FCvOrlando City SC
Atlanta United FC
Orlando City SC·
2 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–11.7–1.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (11%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Atlanta United FC and Orlando City SC finish on some other score 73% of the time. We show 2–1 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Atl / Orl | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Atlanta United FC down the side and Orlando City SC across. These 98.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 1.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Atlanta United FC43% · Match result
- Over 1.582% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Atlanta United FC the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 55%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 44%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Atlanta United FC a 44% chance. Our model makes it 43%.
2Market
Open: 46% home · 24% draw · 30% away
Now: 44% home · 24% draw · 32% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Atlanta United FC
Solid: the market over 9 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Atlanta United FC
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- F. Picault — out (International duty)
- P. Diaz — out (International duty)
- M. Almiron — out (International duty)
- C. Sanchez — out (Injury)
- S. Alzate — out (Illness)
- E. Latte Lath — out (Transfer negotiations)
- T. Jacob — out (Yellow Cards)
- W. Reilly — out (Ankle Injury)
- A. Fortune — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Sergio Santos — out (Calf Injury)
- M. Galarza — out (Injury)
- A. Miranchuk — out (International duty)
- J. Alonso — out (International duty)
Orlando City SC
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- T. Spicer — out (International duty)
- M. Pasalic — out (International duty)
- W. Cartagena — out (International duty)
- D. Brekalo — out (International duty)
- A. Griezmann — out (Thigh Injury)
- G. Dorsey — out (Back Injury)
- E. Atuesta — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Marin — out (Thigh Injury)
- C. Guske — out (International duty)
- D. McGuire — out (Leg Injury)
- J. Gerbet — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Ellis — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Atlanta United FCDLWWW
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Inter Miami 2–2
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Charlotte 0–2(xG 0.9–1.6)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Sporting Kansas City 2–1
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Minnesota United FC 2–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v New York Red Bulls 2–1
Orlando City SCWDWLD
- Sat 5 Sep · H v San Diego 1–0
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Minnesota United FC 3–3(xG 1.3–3.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Real Salt Lake 2–1
- Wed 19 Aug · H v Chicago Fire 1–2
- Sat 15 Aug · H v FC Cincinnati 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Atlanta United FC have won 3 of their last 5.
- Atlanta United FC have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Atlanta United FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Atlanta United FC's last 5.
- Atlanta United FC kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Orlando City SC have won 2 of their last 5.
- Orlando City SC have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Orlando City SC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Orlando City SC's last 5.
- Orlando City SC kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Atlanta United FC W–D–L
- 0–1–0
- Over 2.5
- 0 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Orlando City SC 1–1 Atlanta United FC
7Context
Atlanta United FC
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Orlando City SC
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta · Referee: A. Villarreal
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Atlanta United FC vs Orlando City SC?
- Our model makes Atlanta United FC the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 44%.
- Will both teams score in Atlanta United FC vs Orlando City SC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Atlanta United FC vs Orlando City SC?
- Atlanta United FC's reported absences and doubts include F. Picault, P. Diaz, M. Almiron, C. Sanchez and 9 others. Orlando City SC's include T. Spicer, M. Pasalic, W. Cartagena, D. Brekalo and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Atlanta United FC vs Orlando City SC?
- Atlanta United FC line up in a 4-3-3, Orlando City SC in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.