Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 23
Orlando City SCvSan Diego
Orlando City SC
San Diego·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- San Diego39% · Match result
- Over 1.584% · Goals
- Yes62% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes San Diego the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 51%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Orlando City SC the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 33%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Orlando City SC a 43% chance. Our model makes it 38%.
2Market
Open: 43% home · 23% draw · 34% away
Now: 43% home · 23% draw · 33% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from San Diego
Solid: the market over 3 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Orlando City SC
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- T. Spicer — out (International duty)
- M. Pasalic — out (International duty)
- W. Cartagena — out (International duty)
- D. Brekalo — out (International duty)
- A. Griezmann — out (Thigh Injury)
- G. Dorsey — out (Back Injury)
- E. Atuesta — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Marin — out (Thigh Injury)
- C. Guske — out (International duty)
- D. McGuire — out (Leg Injury)
- J. Gerbet — out (Knee Injury)
- J. Ellis — out (International duty)
San Diego
Lineup not yet confirmed
- dos Santos CJ — out (International duty)
- S. Vines — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- A. Mighten — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- Gabriel Pirani — out (Injury)
- J. Tverskov — out (Red Card)
- A. Pellegrino — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- L. Bombino — out (Red Card)
- A. Reyes — out (Leg Injury)
- W. Kumado — out (Leg Injury)
- L. Morgan — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- P. Sisniega — out (Back Injury)
- W. Eisner — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- O. Valakari — out (International duty)
- E. Achouri — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Orlando City SCDWLDL
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Minnesota United FC 3–3(xG 1.3–3.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Real Salt Lake 2–1
- Wed 19 Aug · H v Chicago Fire 1–2
- Sat 15 Aug · H v FC Cincinnati 1–1
- Sat 1 Aug · A v New York Red Bulls 2–3
San DiegoWWLWD
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Los Angeles Galaxy 3–1(xG 2.8–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Colorado Rapids 3–0
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Portland Timbers 1–3
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Los Angeles FC 1–0
- Sun 2 Aug · A v Minnesota United FC 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Orlando City SC have won 1 of their last 5.
- Orlando City SC have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Orlando City SC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Orlando City SC's last 5.
- Orlando City SC kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- San Diego have won 3 of their last 5.
- San Diego have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of San Diego's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of San Diego's last 5.
- San Diego kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Orlando City SC
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
San Diego
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: J. Dickerson
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Orlando City SC vs San Diego?
- Our model makes San Diego the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market instead favours Orlando City SC at 43%.
- Will both teams score in Orlando City SC vs San Diego?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 62% chance, against 38% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Orlando City SC vs San Diego?
- Orlando City SC's reported absences and doubts include T. Spicer, M. Pasalic, W. Cartagena, D. Brekalo and 8 others. San Diego's include dos Santos CJ, S. Vines, A. Mighten, Gabriel Pirani and 10 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Orlando City SC vs San Diego?
- Orlando City SC line up in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.