Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 23
Toronto FCvChicago Fire
Toronto FC
Chicago Fire·
4 – 4 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Chicago Fire39% · Match result
- Over 1.579% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Chicago Fire the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 30% to 49%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 43%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Chicago Fire a 43% chance. Our model makes it 39%.
2Market
Open: 33% home · 25% draw · 43% away
Now: 33% home · 25% draw · 43% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Toronto FC
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- W. Zimmerman — out (Yellow Cards)
- R. Laryea — out (International duty)
- B. Kuscevic — out (International duty)
- M. Cimermancic — out (International duty)
- D. Mihailovic — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Osorio — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Kerr — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- N. Gomis — out (Thigh Injury)
- H. Wingo — out (Hamstring Injury)
- L. Stefanovic — out (Foot Injury)
- J. Vilsaint — out (Groin Injury)
- R. Chukwu — out (International duty)
Chicago Fire
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- R. Lod — out (International duty)
- A. Saletros — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- J. Bamba — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- S. Oregel — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- C. Mueller — out (Inactive)
- L. Barroso — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- H. Cuypers — out (Head Injury)
- V. Radojevic — doubtful (Lower-Body Injury)
- A. Franco — out (Knee Injury)
- A. Mekvabishvili — out (International duty)
- R. Lewandowski — out (International duty)
- P. Dithejane — out (International duty)
- C. Brady — out (International duty)
- N. Allen — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Toronto FCDWDWD
- Sat 29 Aug · H v New York City FC 1–1(xG 0.8–0.4)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Inter Miami 2–1
- Wed 19 Aug · H v Charlotte 3–3
- Sat 15 Aug · H v New England Revolution 2–1
- Fri 31 Jul · A v New York City FC 1–1
Chicago FireDDWWW
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Seattle Sounders 2–2(xG 2.0–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v New York Red Bulls 1–1
- Wed 19 Aug · A v Orlando City SC 2–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Portland Timbers 2–1
- Sun 2 Aug · H v Charlotte 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Toronto FC have won 2 of their last 5.
- Toronto FC have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Toronto FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Toronto FC's last 5.
- Toronto FC kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Chicago Fire have won 3 of their last 5.
- Chicago Fire have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Chicago Fire's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Chicago Fire's last 5.
- Chicago Fire kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Toronto FC W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Chicago Fire 2–1 Toronto FC
7Context
Toronto FC
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Chicago Fire
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
BMO Field, Toronto · Referee: T. Penso
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?
- Our model makes Chicago Fire the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 43%.
- Will both teams score in Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?
- Toronto FC's reported absences and doubts include W. Zimmerman, R. Laryea, B. Kuscevic, M. Cimermancic and 8 others. Chicago Fire's include R. Lod, A. Saletros, J. Bamba, S. Oregel and 10 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?
- Toronto FC line up in a 4-2-3-1, Chicago Fire in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.