Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 23

CharlottevHouston Dynamo

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0 – 0 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

  • Charlotte46% · Match result
  • Over 1.577% · Goals
  • Yes55% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes Charlotte the most likely of the three results, at 46% (we would not be surprised by anything from 35% to 57%). Most likely is not likely: at 46% this result does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 44%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Charlotte a 44% chance. Our model makes it 46%.

CharlotteModel 46% [35%–57%]Market 44%
Charlotte:, our forecast 46%, between 35% and 57%, market 44%

2Market

Open: 44% home · 26% draw · 30% away

Now: 44% home · 26% draw · 30% away

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home46%vs44%+2pp
Draw26%vs26%0pp
Away28%vs30%−2pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs57%
Under 2.5—vs43%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.577%vs81%−4pp
Under 1.523%vs19%+4pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs34%
Under 3.5—vs66%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes55%vs61%−6pp
No45%vs39%+6pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Charlotte

Confirmed · 4-3-3

  • A. Johnson — out (International duty)
  • D. Schnegg — out (Yellow Cards)
  • A. Westwood — out (Red Card)
  • N. Berchimas — out (Foot Injury)
  • H. Kessler — out (Lower-Body Injury)
  • I. Toklomati — out (International duty)
  • R. Aloko — out (International duty)
  • L. Abada — out (International duty)

Houston Dynamo

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

  • A. Resch — out (Lower-Body Injury)
  • L. Foster — out (Inactive)
  • Felipe Andrade — out (Yellow Cards)
  • M. Saracchi — out (Lower-Body Injury)
  • Lucas Halter — out (Yellow Cards)
  • Antonio Carlos — out (Knee Injury)
  • E. Sviatchenko — out (Lower-Body Injury)
  • N. Quinones — out (Lower-Body Injury)
  • J. Maurer — out (Concussion)
  • M. Arana — out (International duty)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

CharlotteWWDWL

  • Sat 29 Aug · A v Atlanta United FC 2–0(xG 1.6–0.9)
  • Sat 22 Aug · H v DC United 3–1
  • Wed 19 Aug · A v Toronto FC 3–3
  • Sat 15 Aug · H v Columbus Crew 3–1
  • Sun 2 Aug · A v Chicago Fire 1–2

Houston DynamoDLWWW

  • Sun 30 Aug · H v San Jose Earthquakes 0–0(xG 0.7–1.3)
  • Sun 23 Aug · A v St. Louis City 1–2
  • Thu 20 Aug · A v Vancouver Whitecaps 1–0
  • Sun 16 Aug · H v Los Angeles Galaxy 1–0
  • Sat 8 Aug · A v New England Revolution 2–0

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Charlotte
  • Charlotte have won 3 of their last 5.
  • Charlotte have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 4 of Charlotte's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 4 of Charlotte's last 5.
  • Charlotte kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
Houston Dynamo
  • Houston Dynamo have won 3 of their last 5.
  • Houston Dynamo have scored in 4 of their last 5.
  • 1 of Houston Dynamo's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 1 of Houston Dynamo's last 5.
  • Houston Dynamo kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Charlotte

Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d

Houston Dynamo

Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d

Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte · Referee: G. Gonzales

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win Charlotte vs Houston Dynamo?
Our model makes Charlotte the most likely result at 46%. Most likely is not likely — at 46% it does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 44%.
Will both teams score in Charlotte vs Houston Dynamo?
Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Charlotte vs Houston Dynamo?
Charlotte's reported absences and doubts include A. Johnson, D. Schnegg, A. Westwood, N. Berchimas and 4 others. Houston Dynamo's include A. Resch, L. Foster, Felipe Andrade, M. Saracchi and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Charlotte vs Houston Dynamo?
Charlotte line up in a 4-3-3, Houston Dynamo in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.