Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 23
Columbus CrewvColorado Rapids
Columbus Crew
Colorado Rapids·
3 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Columbus Crew56% · Match result
- Over 1.581% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Match result: Columbus Crew
Best price 2.29 at PinnacleThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 56% against a market price of 43% — 13 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 72% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- 21 players reported unavailable — 11 for Columbus Crew, 10 for Colorado Rapids.
Our forecast makes Columbus Crew the most likely of the three results, at 56% (we would not be surprised by anything from 45% to 66%). Most likely is not likely: at 56% this result does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 43%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Columbus Crew a 43% chance. Our model makes it 56%.
2Market
Open: 43% home · 26% draw · 31% away
Now: 43% home · 26% draw · 31% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Columbus Crew
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- R. Camacho — out (Foot Injury)
- J. Thiare — out (Leg Injury)
- A. Gomes — out (Thigh Injury)
- D. Chambost — out (Ankle Injury)
- W. Abou Ali — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Farsi — out (Hernia)
- S. Bangoura — out (Ankle Injury)
- L. Giaccone — doubtful (Injury)
- G. Tapia — out (International duty)
- S. Moreira — out (International duty)
- N. Hagen — out (International duty)
Colorado Rapids
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- W. Frederick — out (International duty)
- Y. Maziz — out (Injury)
- R. Cannon — out (Yellow Cards)
- M. Navarro — out (Injury)
- J. Atencio — out (Yellow Cards)
- Z. Steffen — out (Shoulder Injury)
- J. Travis — out (Ankle Injury)
- A. Fadal — out (Abdominal strain)
- M. Diop — out (Knee Injury)
- G. Minoungou — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Columbus CrewLLLLD
- Sun 30 Aug · H v New England Revolution 1–3(xG 0.4–1.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Nashville SC 2–3
- Wed 19 Aug · H v CF Montreal 1–2
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Charlotte 1–3
- Sat 1 Aug · A v Inter Miami 2–2
Colorado RapidsWLWWW
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Real Salt Lake 1–0(xG 1.6–0.1)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v San Diego 0–3
- Thu 20 Aug · H v Los Angeles FC 1–0
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Sporting Kansas City 2–0
- Sun 2 Aug · H v Austin 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Columbus Crew have won 0 of their last 5.
- Columbus Crew have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Columbus Crew's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Columbus Crew's last 5.
- Columbus Crew kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Colorado Rapids have won 4 of their last 5.
- Colorado Rapids have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 1 of Colorado Rapids's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 0 of Colorado Rapids's last 5.
- Colorado Rapids kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Columbus Crew
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Colorado Rapids
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
ScottsMiracle-Gro Field, Columbus · Referee: A. Da Silva
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Columbus Crew vs Colorado Rapids?
- Our model makes Columbus Crew the most likely result at 56%. Most likely is not likely — at 56% it does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 43%.
- Will both teams score in Columbus Crew vs Colorado Rapids?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Columbus Crew vs Colorado Rapids?
- Columbus Crew's reported absences and doubts include R. Camacho, J. Thiare, A. Gomes, D. Chambost and 7 others. Colorado Rapids's include W. Frederick, Y. Maziz, R. Cannon, M. Navarro and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Columbus Crew vs Colorado Rapids?
- Columbus Crew line up in a 4-4-2, Colorado Rapids in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.