Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 23
Inter MiamivAtlanta United FC
Inter Miami
Atlanta United FC·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Inter Miami73% · Match result
- Over 1.587% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Inter Miami the most likely of the three results, at 73% (we would not be surprised by anything from 64% to 82%). Most likely is not likely: at 73% this result does not happen 27% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 75%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Inter Miami a 75% chance. Our model makes it 73%.
2Market
Open: 76% home · 14% draw · 10% away
Now: 75% home · 15% draw · 11% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Inter Miami
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Inter Miami
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- T. Segovia — out (Muscle Injury)
- I. Fray — out (Injury)
- G. Berterame — out (International duty)
- M. Silvetti — out (Injury)
- S. Morales — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Lujan — out (Leg Injury)
- R. de Paul — out (Rest)
- S. Reguilon — out (Injury)
- M. Falcon — out (Calf Injury)
- D. Ayala — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Allende — out (Knee Injury)
- D. St.Clair — out (International duty)
- D. Pinter — out (International duty)
- M. Galarza — out (International duty)
- L. Delinois — out (International duty)
- F. Caicedo — out (International duty)
Atlanta United FC
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- F. Picault — out (International duty)
- P. Diaz — out (International duty)
- M. Almiron — out (International duty)
- C. Sanchez — out (Injury)
- S. Alzate — out (Illness)
- E. Latte Lath — out (Transfer negotiations)
- T. Jacob — out (Yellow Cards)
- W. Reilly — out (Ankle Injury)
- A. Fortune — out (Hamstring Injury)
- Sergio Santos — out (Calf Injury)
- M. Galarza — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Inter MiamiWLDLD
- Sat 29 Aug · H v CF Montreal 7–1(xG 3.0–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Toronto FC 1–2
- Wed 19 Aug · A v Philadelphia Union 2–2
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Nashville SC 1–4
- Sat 1 Aug · H v Columbus Crew 2–2
Atlanta United FCLWWWL
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Charlotte 0–2(xG 0.9–1.6)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Sporting Kansas City 2–1
- Thu 20 Aug · A v Minnesota United FC 2–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v New York Red Bulls 2–1
- Sat 1 Aug · A v Philadelphia Union 2–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Inter Miami have won 1 of their last 5.
- Inter Miami have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Inter Miami's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Inter Miami's last 5.
- Inter Miami kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Atlanta United FC have won 3 of their last 5.
- Atlanta United FC have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 4 of Atlanta United FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Atlanta United FC's last 5.
- Atlanta United FC kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Inter Miami
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Atlanta United FC
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Nu Stadium, Fort Lauderdale · Referee: J. Freemon
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Inter Miami vs Atlanta United FC?
- Our model makes Inter Miami the most likely result at 73%. Most likely is not likely — at 73% it does not happen 27% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 75%.
- Will both teams score in Inter Miami vs Atlanta United FC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Inter Miami vs Atlanta United FC?
- Inter Miami's reported absences and doubts include T. Segovia, I. Fray, G. Berterame, M. Silvetti and 12 others. Atlanta United FC's include F. Picault, P. Diaz, M. Almiron, C. Sanchez and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Inter Miami vs Atlanta United FC?
- Inter Miami line up in a 4-3-3, Atlanta United FC in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.