Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 23
Philadelphia UnionvCF Montreal
Philadelphia Union
CF Montreal·
2 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Philadelphia Union65% · Match result
- Over 1.582% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Philadelphia Union the most likely of the three results, at 65% (we would not be surprised by anything from 55% to 75%). Most likely is not likely: at 65% this result does not happen 35% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 68%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Philadelphia Union a 68% chance. Our model makes it 65%.
2Market
Open: 68% home · 18% draw · 13% away
Now: 68% home · 18% draw · 13% away
Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Philadelphia Union
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- F. Westfield — out (International duty)
- D. Jean Jacques — out (International duty)
- A. Blake — out (International duty)
- E. Davis III — out (Injury)
- J. Sery Larsen — out (Shoulder Injury)
- O. Makhanya — out (Yellow Cards)
- E. Alladoh — out (Personal Reasons)
- C. Sullivan — out (International duty)
- N. Pierre — out (International duty)
- P. Ndinga — out (Hamstring Injury)
CF Montreal
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- G. Synchuk — out (International duty)
- N. Streit — out (International duty)
- V. Radojevic — out (International duty)
- E. Morales — out (International duty)
- W. Carmona — out (International duty)
- T. Gillier — out (Upper-Body Injury)
- B. Vera — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- B. Ceballos — out (Yellow Cards)
- F. Herbers — out (Leg Injury)
- B. Hidalgo — out (Groin Injury)
- T. Aviles — out (Hamstring Injury)
- S. Ibrahim — out (Back Injury)
- F. Amaya — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- D. Sealy — out (International duty)
- S. Piette — out (Yellow Cards)
- O. Escobar — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Philadelphia UnionWDDWW
- Sat 29 Aug · A v New York Red Bulls 3–1(xG 2.5–2.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Austin 1–1
- Wed 19 Aug · H v Inter Miami 2–2
- Sun 16 Aug · A v New York City FC 3–2
- Sat 1 Aug · H v Atlanta United FC 3–2
CF MontrealLDWDD
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Inter Miami 1–7(xG 0.9–3.0)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Los Angeles Galaxy 2–2
- Wed 19 Aug · A v Columbus Crew 2–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v DC United 1–1
- Sat 1 Aug · H v New England Revolution 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Philadelphia Union have won 3 of their last 5.
- Philadelphia Union have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Philadelphia Union's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Philadelphia Union's last 5.
- Philadelphia Union kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- CF Montreal have won 1 of their last 5.
- CF Montreal have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of CF Montreal's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of CF Montreal's last 5.
- CF Montreal kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- Philadelphia Union W–D–L
- 1–0–0
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- CF Montreal 1–2 Philadelphia Union
7Context
Philadelphia Union
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
CF Montreal
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Subaru Park, Philadelphia · Referee: C. Penso
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal?
- Our model makes Philadelphia Union the most likely result at 65%. Most likely is not likely — at 65% it does not happen 35% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 68%.
- Will both teams score in Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal?
- Philadelphia Union's reported absences and doubts include F. Westfield, D. Jean Jacques, A. Blake, E. Davis III and 6 others. CF Montreal's include G. Synchuk, N. Streit, V. Radojevic, E. Morales and 12 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal?
- Philadelphia Union line up in a 4-4-2, CF Montreal in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.