Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 24

Toronto FCvNashville SC

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2 – 1 (FT)

1Headline

We expect

1–21.1–1.4 goals

Likeliest exact score 1–1 (13%), then 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%). Toronto FC and Nashville SC finish on some other score 67% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.

Probability of each scoreline, Toronto FC goals down the side, Nashville SC across
Tor / Nas012345
09118410.4
18139420.4
257520.80.2
32220.80.30.1
40.40.60.40.20.10.0
50.10.10.10.00.00.0

Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Toronto FC down the side and Nashville SC across. These 99.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.4% is spread across higher scores.

Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.

What we think

  • Nashville SC45% · Match result
  • Over 1.575% · Goals
  • Yes53% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes Nashville SC the most likely of the three results, at 45% (we would not be surprised by anything from 35% to 56%). Most likely is not likely: at 45% this result does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 47%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Nashville SC a 47% chance. Our model makes it 45%.

Nashville SCModel 45% [35%–56%]Market 47%
Nashville SC:, our forecast 45%, between 35% and 56%, market 47%

2Market

Open: 31% home · 26% draw · 43% away

Now: 28% home · 26% draw · 47% away

Moved +4pp — the market moved towards Nashville SC

How the devigged price moved before kick-off

Solid: the market over 9 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home27%vs28%−1pp
Draw28%vs26%+2pp
Away45%vs47%−2pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs55%
Under 2.5—vs45%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.575%vs79%−4pp
Under 1.525%vs21%+4pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs33%
Under 3.5—vs67%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes53%vs59%−6pp
No47%vs41%+6pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Toronto FC

Confirmed · 4-4-2

  • W. Zimmerman — out (Yellow Cards)
  • R. Laryea — out (International duty)
  • B. Kuscevic — out (International duty)
  • M. Cimermancic — out (International duty)
  • D. Mihailovic — out (Muscle Injury)
  • J. Osorio — out (Knee Injury)
  • D. Kerr — out (Lower-Body Injury)
  • N. Gomis — out (Thigh Injury)
  • H. Wingo — out (Hamstring Injury)
  • L. Stefanovic — out (Foot Injury)
  • J. Vilsaint — out (Groin Injury)
  • R. Chukwu — out (International duty)

Nashville SC

Confirmed · 4-3-3

  • P. Yazbek — out (International duty)
  • X. Valdez — out (International duty)
  • C. Applewhite — out (Lower-Body Injury)
  • R. Baker-Whiting — out (Lower-Body Injury)
  • E. Tagseth — out (Leg Injury)
  • S. Surridge — out (Back Injury)
  • W. Madrigal — out (Lower-Body Injury)
  • B. Schwake — out (International duty)
  • A. Qasem — out (International duty)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

Toronto FCDDWDW

  • Sat 5 Sep · H v Chicago Fire 4–4
  • Sat 29 Aug · H v New York City FC 1–1(xG 0.8–0.4)
  • Sat 22 Aug · A v Inter Miami 2–1
  • Wed 19 Aug · H v Charlotte 3–3
  • Sat 15 Aug · H v New England Revolution 2–1

Nashville SCDWWWW

  • Fri 4 Sep · A v New York City FC 0–0
  • Sun 30 Aug · H v FC Cincinnati 4–0(xG 1.8–1.9)
  • Sun 23 Aug · H v Columbus Crew 3–2
  • Wed 19 Aug · A v New York Red Bulls 1–0
  • Sun 16 Aug · H v Inter Miami 4–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Toronto FC
  • Toronto FC have won 2 of their last 5.
  • Toronto FC have scored in 5 of their last 5.
  • 4 of Toronto FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 5 of Toronto FC's last 5.
  • Toronto FC kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
Nashville SC
  • Nashville SC have won 4 of their last 5.
  • Nashville SC have scored in 4 of their last 5.
  • 3 of Nashville SC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
  • Both teams scored in 2 of Nashville SC's last 5.
  • Nashville SC kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Toronto FC

Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d

Nashville SC

Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d

BMO Field, Toronto · Referee: F. Dujic

8Red flags

Common questions

Who will win Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?
Our model makes Nashville SC the most likely result at 45%. Most likely is not likely — at 45% it does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 47%.
Will both teams score in Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?
Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?
Toronto FC's reported absences and doubts include W. Zimmerman, R. Laryea, B. Kuscevic, M. Cimermancic and 8 others. Nashville SC's include P. Yazbek, X. Valdez, C. Applewhite, R. Baker-Whiting and 5 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?
Toronto FC line up in a 4-4-2, Nashville SC in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.