Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 24
DC UnitedvColumbus Crew
DC United
Columbus Crew·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.3–1.6 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). DC United and Columbus Crew finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| DC / Col | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, DC United down the side and Columbus Crew across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Columbus Crew43% · Match result
- Over 1.579% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Columbus Crew the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes DC United the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 36%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives DC United a 38% chance. Our model makes it 32%.
2Market
Open: 36% home · 27% draw · 37% away
Now: 38% home · 26% draw · 36% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards DC United
Solid: the market over 8 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
DC United
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- L. Munteanu — out (International duty)
- T. Baribo — out (International duty)
- Peglow — out (Yellow Cards)
- K. Rowles — out (Thigh Injury)
- S. Hefti — out (Yellow Cards)
- S. Nealis — out (Broken collarbone)
- M. Peltola — out (International duty)
- N. Ordaz — out (International duty)
Columbus Crew
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- R. Camacho — out (Foot Injury)
- J. Thiare — out (Leg Injury)
- A. Gomes — out (Thigh Injury)
- D. Chambost — out (Ankle Injury)
- W. Abou Ali — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Farsi — out (Hernia)
- S. Bangoura — out (Ankle Injury)
- L. Giaccone — doubtful (Injury)
- G. Tapia — out (International duty)
- S. Moreira — out (International duty)
- N. Hagen — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
DC UnitedDLLDD
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Los Angeles FC 0–0(xG 1.2–1.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Charlotte 1–3
- Wed 19 Aug · H v New England Revolution 0–3
- Sat 15 Aug · A v CF Montreal 1–1
- Sat 1 Aug · H v Nashville SC 2–2
Columbus CrewWLLLL
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Colorado Rapids 3–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v New England Revolution 1–3(xG 0.4–1.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Nashville SC 2–3
- Wed 19 Aug · H v CF Montreal 1–2
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Charlotte 1–3
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- DC United have won 0 of their last 5.
- DC United have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of DC United's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of DC United's last 5.
- DC United kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Columbus Crew have won 1 of their last 5.
- Columbus Crew have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of Columbus Crew's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Columbus Crew's last 5.
- Columbus Crew kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
DC United
Rest: 11 days · 1 match in 14d
Columbus Crew
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Audi Field, Washington · Referee: M. Kaleia
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win DC United vs Columbus Crew?
- Our model makes Columbus Crew the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time. The market instead favours DC United at 38%.
- Will both teams score in DC United vs Columbus Crew?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for DC United vs Columbus Crew?
- DC United's reported absences and doubts include L. Munteanu, T. Baribo, Peglow, K. Rowles and 4 others. Columbus Crew's include R. Camacho, J. Thiare, A. Gomes, D. Chambost and 7 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for DC United vs Columbus Crew?
- DC United line up in a 4-4-2, Columbus Crew in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.