Premiership · Regular Season - 3
RangersvST Mirren
Rangers
ST Mirren·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Rangers71% · Match result
- Over 1.575% · Goals
- No52% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Both teams to score: No
Best price 2.15 at 10BetThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 52% against a market price of 44% — 8 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 66% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 10 matches between them averaged 2.3 goals, and 3.4 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- Both sides scored in 5 of those 10.
- The price has moved 2.4% away from Rangers since it opened.
Our forecast makes Rangers the most likely of the three results, at 71% (we would not be surprised by anything from 60% to 82%). Most likely is not likely: at 71% this result does not happen 29% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 72%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Rangers a 72% chance. Our model makes it 71%.
2Market
Open: 74% home · 16% draw · 10% away
Now: 72% home · 17% draw · 11% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Rangers
Solid: the market over 7 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Rangers
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
ST Mirren
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
RangersWWWLD
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Motherwell 1–0
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Falkirk 2–1
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Aberdeen 1–0(xG 1.8–0.5)
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Hibernian 1–2
- Fri 31 Jul · A v Dundee Utd 1–1
ST MirrenLWDWW
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Celtic 1–2
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Kilmarnock 1–0
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Motherwell 3–3(xG 2.3–2.2)
- Sat 8 Aug · H v ST Johnstone 1–0
- Sat 1 Aug · A v Falkirk 2–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Rangers have won 3 of their last 5.
- Rangers have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of Rangers's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Rangers's last 5.
- Rangers kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- ST Mirren have won 3 of their last 5.
- ST Mirren have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of ST Mirren's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of ST Mirren's last 5.
- ST Mirren kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Rangers
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
ST Mirren
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
Ibrox Stadium, Glasgow
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win Rangers vs ST Mirren?
- Our model makes Rangers the most likely result at 71%. Most likely is not likely — at 71% it does not happen 29% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 72%.
- Will both teams score in Rangers vs ST Mirren?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 48% chance, against 52% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Rangers vs ST Mirren?
- Rangers line up in a 4-2-3-1, ST Mirren in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.