Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 3
MoreirensevBenfica
Moreirense
Benfica·
0 – 4 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–20.7–2.1 goals
Likeliest exact score 0–2 (13%), then 0-1 (12%), 1-1 (10%). Moreirense and Benfica finish on some other score 66% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| Mor / Ben | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Moreirense down the side and Benfica across. These 98.0% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.0% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Benfica68% · Match result
- Over 1.578% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Our bet on this match
Both teams to score: Yes
Best price 2.27 at SuperbetThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.
- We make this 52% against a market price of 41% — 11 points of difference.
- Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 84% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
- Their last 8 matches between them averaged 3.6 goals, and 1.7 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
- Both sides scored in 4 of those 8.
Our forecast makes Benfica the most likely of the three results, at 68% (we would not be surprised by anything from 61% to 76%). Most likely is not likely: at 68% this result does not happen 32% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 84%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Benfica a 84% chance. Our model makes it 68%.
2Market
Open: 5% home · 12% draw · 83% away
Now: 5% home · 11% draw · 84% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from the draw
Solid: the market over 7 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Moreirense
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Benfica
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
MoreirenseLWLD
- Fri 4 Sep · A v FC Porto 1–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Casa Pia 1–0(xG 0.3–0.8)
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Arouca 0–4
- Sun 9 Aug · H v SC Braga 2–2
BenficaWWWD
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Maritimo 3–0
- Mon 31 Aug · H v Estoril 2–1(xG 2.0–0.4)
- Mon 17 Aug · A v Casa Pia 7–0
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Academico Viseu 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Moreirense have won 1 of their last 4.
- Moreirense have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 3 of Moreirense's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Moreirense's last 4.
- Moreirense kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
- Benfica have won 3 of their last 4.
- Benfica have scored in 4 of their last 4.
- 4 of Benfica's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Benfica's last 4.
- Benfica kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Moreirense
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Benfica
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos · Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Moreirense vs Benfica?
- Our model makes Benfica the most likely result at 68%. Most likely is not likely — at 68% it does not happen 32% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 84%.
- Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Benfica?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Moreirense vs Benfica?
- Moreirense line up in a 4-2-3-1, Benfica in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.