Championship · Regular Season - 6
CharltonvQPR
Charlton
QPR·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Charlton39% · Match result
- Over 1.573% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Charlton the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 46%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes QPR the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 29%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives QPR a 42% chance. Our model makes it 32%.
2Market
Open: 30% home · 27% draw · 42% away
Now: 29% home · 29% draw · 42% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Charlton
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Charlton
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- N. Chalobah — out (Muscle Injury)
- B. Koumetio — out (Muscle Injury)
- C. Kelman — out (Shoulder Injury)
- J. Edwards — out (Ankle Injury)
- D. McNamara — out (Red Card)
- C. Sichenje — out (Knee Injury)
- W. Mannion — out (Shoulder Injury)
- M. Godden — out (Muscle Injury)
- R. Burke — out (Inactive)
- K. Ramsay — out (Ankle Injury)
- T. Ouma — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- M. Mbick — out (Knee Injury)
QPR
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- J. Obikwu — out (Inactive)
- J. Dunne — out (Knee Injury)
- T. Lamptey — out (Injury)
- R. Kone — out (Injury)
- B. Kemper — out (Ankle Injury)
- I. Chair — out (Injury)
- R. Kolli — out (Coach's decision)
- K. Dembele — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
CharltonLDWWW
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Stoke City 0–4
- Wed 2 Sep · A v West Brom 1–1(xG 0.4–0.6)
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Preston 1–0(xG 0.9–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v West Ham 2–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Derby 2–1
QPRLWWDW
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Middlesbrough 0–1
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Cardiff 2–1(xG 2.1–0.6)
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Blackburn 2–1(xG 1.3–1.0)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Bolton 0–0
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Portsmouth 3–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Charlton have won 3 of their last 5.
- Charlton have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Charlton's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Charlton's last 5.
- Charlton kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- QPR have won 3 of their last 5.
- QPR have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of QPR's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of QPR's last 5.
- QPR kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Charlton
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
QPR
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
The Valley, London · Referee: Tom Nield, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Charlton vs QPR?
- Our model makes Charlton the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market instead favours QPR at 42%.
- Will both teams score in Charlton vs QPR?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Charlton vs QPR?
- Charlton's reported absences and doubts include N. Chalobah, B. Koumetio, C. Kelman, J. Edwards and 8 others. QPR's include J. Obikwu, J. Dunne, T. Lamptey, R. Kone and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Charlton vs QPR?
- Charlton line up in a 4-2-3-1, QPR in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.