Premiership · Regular Season - 3
ST JohnstonevCeltic
ST Johnstone
Celtic·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Celtic71% · Match result
- Over 1.578% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Celtic the most likely of the three results, at 71% (we would not be surprised by anything from 52% to 86%). Most likely is not likely: at 71% this result does not happen 29% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 67%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Celtic a 67% chance. Our model makes it 71%.
2Market
Open: 16% home · 20% draw · 64% away
Now: 14% home · 19% draw · 67% away
Moved +3pp — the market moved towards Celtic
Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
ST Johnstone
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
No reported absences.
Celtic
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
ST JohnstoneWDLLW
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Hibernian 2–1
- Wed 2 Sep · A v Dundee 1–1
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Heart Of Midlothian 1–2(xG 1.2–1.7)
- Sat 8 Aug · A v ST Mirren 0–1
- Sun 2 Aug · H v Kilmarnock 4–3
CelticWWWWW
- Sat 5 Sep · A v ST Mirren 2–1
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Aberdeen 3–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Falkirk 2–1(xG 2.9–0.5)
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Kilmarnock 5–1
- Mon 3 Aug · H v Dundee 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- ST Johnstone have won 2 of their last 5.
- ST Johnstone have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of ST Johnstone's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of ST Johnstone's last 5.
- ST Johnstone kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Celtic have won 5 of their last 5.
- Celtic have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Celtic's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Celtic's last 5.
- Celtic kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
ST Johnstone
Rest: 3 days · 3 matches in 14d
Celtic
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
McDiarmid Park, Perth
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Common questions
- Who will win ST Johnstone vs Celtic?
- Our model makes Celtic the most likely result at 71%. Most likely is not likely — at 71% it does not happen 29% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 67%.
- Will both teams score in ST Johnstone vs Celtic?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for ST Johnstone vs Celtic?
- ST Johnstone line up in a 3-4-2-1, Celtic in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.