Championship · Regular Season - 6
DerbyvWest Brom
Derby
West Brom·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Derby38% · Match result
- Over 1.571% · Goals
- Yes51% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Derby the most likely of the three results, at 38% (we would not be surprised by anything from 33% to 45%). Most likely is not likely: at 38% this result does not happen 62% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes West Brom the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 27%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives West Brom a 46% chance. Our model makes it 31%.
2Market
Open: 34% home · 28% draw · 39% away
Now: 27% home · 28% draw · 46% away
Moved −7pp — the market moved away from Derby
Solid: the market over 8 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Derby
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- L. Travis — out (Leg Injury)
- C. Morris — out (Calf Injury)
- J. Widell Zetterstrom — out (Knee Injury)
- H. Meister — out (Injury)
- F. Bilbija — out (Back Injury)
- C. Forsyth — out (Knee Injury)
- R. Brewster — out (Injury)
- M. Clarke — out (Calf Injury)
- S. Szmodics — out (Thigh Injury)
- D. Murkin — out (Hamstring Injury)
- P. Agyemang — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
West Brom
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- N. Galves — out (Knee Injury)
- B. Pereira — out (Red Card)
- M. Johnston — out (Broken Leg)
- T. Bany — out (Inactive)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
DerbyLWLDL
- Sat 5 Sep · A v West Ham 0–3
- Tue 1 Sep · A v Portsmouth 2–0
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Swansea 0–3(xG 0.6–3.3)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Cardiff 2–2
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Charlton 1–2
West BromWDLWW
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Watford 1–0
- Wed 2 Sep · H v Charlton 1–1(xG 0.6–0.4)
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Middlesbrough 1–3(xG 1.4–2.5)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Burnley 3–1
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Norwich 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Derby have won 1 of their last 5.
- Derby have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 4 of Derby's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Derby's last 5.
- Derby kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- West Brom have won 3 of their last 5.
- West Brom have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of West Brom's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of West Brom's last 5.
- West Brom kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Derby
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
West Brom
Rest: 4 days · 3 matches in 14d
Pride Park, Derby · Referee: James Bell, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Derby vs West Brom?
- Our model makes Derby the most likely result at 38%. Most likely is not likely — at 38% it does not happen 62% of the time. The market instead favours West Brom at 46%.
- Will both teams score in Derby vs West Brom?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Derby vs West Brom?
- Derby's reported absences and doubts include L. Travis, C. Morris, J. Widell Zetterstrom, H. Meister and 7 others. West Brom's include N. Galves, B. Pereira, M. Johnston, T. Bany. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Derby vs West Brom?
- Derby line up in a 4-2-3-1, West Brom in a 4-4-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.