Eredivisie · Regular Season - 3
TwentevTelstar
Twente
Telstar·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Twente63% · Match result
- Over 1.582% · Goals
- Yes57% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Twente the most likely of the three results, at 63% (we would not be surprised by anything from 51% to 75%). Most likely is not likely: at 63% this result does not happen 37% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 77%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Twente a 77% chance. Our model makes it 63%.
2Market
Open: 78% home · 14% draw · 9% away
Now: 77% home · 14% draw · 9% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Twente
Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Twente
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- K. Hlynsson — out (Inactive)
- S. Lemkin — out (Injury)
- S. Lammers — out (Inactive)
- M. Hilgers — out (Knee Injury)
Telstar
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- N. Thorisson — out (Red Card)
- M. Peersman — doubtful (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
TwenteDWWL
- Sun 6 Sep · A v Groningen 2–2
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Cambuur 4–1(xG 1.8–0.5)
- Sun 16 Aug · H v PEC Zwolle 3–1
- Sun 9 Aug · A v Heerenveen 0–1
TelstarDLLW
- Sun 6 Sep · H v Cambuur 2–2
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Ajax 0–4(xG 1.1–2.1)
- Fri 14 Aug · H v Sparta Rotterdam 1–3
- Sat 8 Aug · A v NEC Nijmegen 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Twente have won 2 of their last 4.
- Twente have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 3 of Twente's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Twente's last 4.
- Twente kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
- Telstar have won 1 of their last 4.
- Telstar have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 4 of Telstar's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Telstar's last 4.
- Telstar kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Twente
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
Telstar
Rest: 3 days · 2 matches in 14d
De Grolsch Veste, Enschede · Referee: Richard Martens, Netherlands
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Twente vs Telstar?
- Our model makes Twente the most likely result at 63%. Most likely is not likely — at 63% it does not happen 37% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 77%.
- Will both teams score in Twente vs Telstar?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance, against 43% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Twente vs Telstar?
- Twente's reported absences and doubts include K. Hlynsson, S. Lemkin, S. Lammers, M. Hilgers. Telstar's include N. Thorisson, M. Peersman. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Twente vs Telstar?
- Twente line up in a 4-2-3-1, Telstar in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.