Eredivisie · Regular Season - 5
TelstarvCambuur
Telstar
Cambuur·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Telstar69% · Match result
- Over 1.580% · Goals
- Yes53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Telstar the most likely of the three results, at 69% (we would not be surprised by anything from 53% to 82%). Most likely is not likely: at 69% this result does not happen 31% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 60%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Telstar a 60% chance. Our model makes it 69%.
2Market
Open: 59% home · 21% draw · 20% away
Now: 60% home · 21% draw · 19% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Telstar
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Telstar
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- N. Thorisson — out (Red Card)
- M. Peersman — doubtful (Injury)
Cambuur
Confirmed · 3-4-2-1
- N. Binder — out (Injury)
- I. Hamache — doubtful (Injury)
- D. Bouah — doubtful (Injury)
- W. Asselman — out (Inactive)
- J. Berkhout — doubtful (Injury)
- R. van de Pavert — out (Personal Reasons)
- D. Visser — out (Knee Injury)
- W. Kooistra — out (Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
TelstarLLW
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Ajax 0–4(xG 1.1–2.1)
- Fri 14 Aug · H v Sparta Rotterdam 1–3
- Sat 8 Aug · A v NEC Nijmegen 2–1
CambuurLLLL
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Twente 1–4(xG 0.5–1.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Feyenoord 2–5
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Fortuna Sittard 1–3
- Fri 7 Aug · H v Excelsior 0–4
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Telstar have won 1 of their last 3.
- Telstar have scored in 2 of their last 3.
- 3 of Telstar's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Telstar's last 3.
- Telstar kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 3.
- Cambuur have won 0 of their last 4.
- Cambuur have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 4 of Cambuur's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Cambuur's last 4.
- Cambuur kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Telstar
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Cambuur
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
BUKO Stadion, Velsen-Zuid · Referee: Joey Kooij, Netherlands
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Telstar vs Cambuur?
- Our model makes Telstar the most likely result at 69%. Most likely is not likely — at 69% it does not happen 31% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 60%.
- Will both teams score in Telstar vs Cambuur?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 53% chance, against 47% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Telstar vs Cambuur?
- Telstar's reported absences and doubts include N. Thorisson, M. Peersman. Cambuur's include N. Binder, I. Hamache, D. Bouah, W. Asselman and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Telstar vs Cambuur?
- Telstar line up in a 3-4-2-1, Cambuur in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.