Who will win Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?

Our model makes AZ Alkmaar the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 52%.

Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?

Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance, against 41% that at least one side is kept out.

What is the team news for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?

Heerenveen's reported absences and doubts include D. Proper, M. Hilgers, M. Linday, M. Egbring and 1 other. AZ Alkmaar's include M. Sin, K. Smit, S. Resink, T. Parrott and 5 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.

What are the confirmed lineups for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?

Heerenveen line up in a 4-2-3-1, AZ Alkmaar in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

Eredivisie · Regular Season - 5

HeerenveenvAZ Alkmaar

Sun 6 Sep · 12:30 UTC

2 – 3 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

AZ Alkmaar39% · Match result
Over 1.581% · Goals
Yes59% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes AZ Alkmaar the most likely of the three results, at 39% (we would not be surprised by anything from 28% to 52%). Most likely is not likely: at 39% this result does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 52%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives AZ Alkmaar a 52% chance. Our model makes it 39%.

AZ AlkmaarModel 39% [28%–52%]Market 52%

2Market

Open: 23% home · 22% draw · 54% away

Now: 25% home · 23% draw · 52% away

Moved −2pp — the market moved away from AZ Alkmaar

Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home36%vs25%+11pp

Draw25%vs23%+2pp

Away39%vs52%−13pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs69%

Under 2.5—vs31%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.581%vs89%−8pp

Under 1.519%vs11%+8pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs47%

Under 3.5—vs53%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes59%vs68%−9pp

No41%vs32%+9pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Heerenveen

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

D. Proper — out (Injury)
M. Hilgers — out (Knee Injury)
M. Linday — out (Inactive)
M. Egbring — out (Injury)
O. Braude — out (Injury)

AZ Alkmaar

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

M. Sin — out (Inactive)
K. Smit — out (Groin Injury)
S. Resink — out (Knee Injury)
T. Parrott — out (Inactive)
R. Robbemond — out (Inactive)
A. Natali — out (Inactive)
D. Kasius — out (Groin Injury)
J. Hornkamp — out (Ankle Injury)
J. Clasie — out (Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

HeerenveenDLDW

Sun 30 Aug · A v Willem II 2–2(xG 1.4–1.7)
Sat 22 Aug · H v PEC Zwolle 0–2
Sun 16 Aug · A v Ajax 2–2
Sun 9 Aug · H v Twente 1–0

AZ AlkmaarWWWW

Sat 29 Aug · H v GO Ahead Eagles 5–2(xG 2.4–1.7)
Sat 22 Aug · A v Fortuna Sittard 2–0
Sat 15 Aug · A v Utrecht 4–1
Sat 8 Aug · H v ADO Den Haag 2–0

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Heerenveen

Heerenveen have won 1 of their last 4.
Heerenveen have scored in 3 of their last 4.
2 of Heerenveen's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 2 of Heerenveen's last 4.
Heerenveen kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.

AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar have won 4 of their last 4.
AZ Alkmaar have scored in 4 of their last 4.
2 of AZ Alkmaar's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 2 of AZ Alkmaar's last 4.
AZ Alkmaar kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 4.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Heerenveen

Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d

AZ Alkmaar

Rest: 8 days · 1 match in 14d

Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen · Referee: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands

8Red flags

Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.

Common questions

Who will win Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?: Our model makes AZ Alkmaar the most likely result at 39%. Most likely is not likely — at 39% it does not happen 61% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 52%.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?: Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance, against 41% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?: Heerenveen's reported absences and doubts include D. Proper, M. Hilgers, M. Linday, M. Egbring and 1 other. AZ Alkmaar's include M. Sin, K. Smit, S. Resink, T. Parrott and 5 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar?: Heerenveen line up in a 4-2-3-1, AZ Alkmaar in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.