Who will win Groningen vs Twente?

Our model makes Twente the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 49%.

Will both teams score in Groningen vs Twente?

Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.

What is the team news for Groningen vs Twente?

Groningen's reported absences and doubts include E. van der Laan, W. Prins, T. Hernes, N. Brandis and 6 others. Twente's include K. Hlynsson, S. Lemkin, S. Lammers, M. Hilgers. Each player's status is in the availability section above.

What are the confirmed lineups for Groningen vs Twente?

Groningen line up in a 4-2-3-1, Twente in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

Eredivisie · Regular Season - 5

GroningenvTwente

Sun 6 Sep · 10:15 UTC

2 – 2 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

Twente40% · Match result
Over 1.579% · Goals
Yes58% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes Twente the most likely of the three results, at 40% (we would not be surprised by anything from 29% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 40% this result does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 49%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Twente a 49% chance. Our model makes it 40%.

TwenteModel 40% [29%–53%]Market 49%

2Market

Open: 29% home · 25% draw · 47% away

Now: 27% home · 23% draw · 49% away

Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Twente

Solid: the market over 6 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home34%vs27%+7pp

Draw26%vs23%+3pp

Away40%vs49%−9pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs69%

Under 2.5—vs31%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.579%vs88%−9pp

Under 1.521%vs12%+9pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs48%

Under 3.5—vs52%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes58%vs69%−11pp

No42%vs31%+11pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Groningen

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

E. van der Laan — out (Inactive)
W. Prins — out (Inactive)
T. Hernes — out (Injury)
N. Brandis — out (Inactive)
M. Rente — out (Injury)
R. Metu — out (Injury)
T. Mercera — out (Injury)
O. Zawada — out (Knock)
S. Resink — out (Knee Injury)
M. Jeng — out (Leg Injury)

Twente

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

K. Hlynsson — out (Inactive)
S. Lemkin — out (Injury)
S. Lammers — out (Inactive)
M. Hilgers — out (Knee Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

GroningenLLWW

Fri 28 Aug · H v Fortuna Sittard 2–3(xG 1.6–0.9)
Sun 23 Aug · A v PSV Eindhoven 1–5
Sun 16 Aug · A v ADO Den Haag 4–1
Sun 9 Aug · H v Utrecht 2–1

TwenteWWL

Sun 30 Aug · A v Cambuur 4–1(xG 1.8–0.5)
Sun 16 Aug · H v PEC Zwolle 3–1
Sun 9 Aug · A v Heerenveen 0–1

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Groningen

Groningen have won 2 of their last 4.
Groningen have scored in 4 of their last 4.
4 of Groningen's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 4 of Groningen's last 4.
Groningen kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.

Twente

Twente have won 2 of their last 3.
Twente have scored in 2 of their last 3.
2 of Twente's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 2 of Twente's last 3.
Twente kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 3.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Groningen

Rest: 9 days · 2 matches in 14d

Twente

Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d

Euroborg, Groningen · Referee: Danny Makkelie, Netherlands

8Red flags

Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.

Common questions

Who will win Groningen vs Twente?: Our model makes Twente the most likely result at 40%. Most likely is not likely — at 40% it does not happen 60% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 49%.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Twente?: Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Groningen vs Twente?: Groningen's reported absences and doubts include E. van der Laan, W. Prins, T. Hernes, N. Brandis and 6 others. Twente's include K. Hlynsson, S. Lemkin, S. Lammers, M. Hilgers. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Groningen vs Twente?: Groningen line up in a 4-2-3-1, Twente in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.