Eredivisie · Regular Season - 5
ADO Den HaagvFortuna Sittard
ADO Den Haag
Fortuna Sittard·
2 – 3 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Fortuna Sittard43% · Match result
- Over 1.576% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Fortuna Sittard the most likely of the three results, at 43% (we would not be surprised by anything from 26% to 60%). Most likely is not likely: at 43% this result does not happen 57% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes ADO Den Haag the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 28%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives ADO Den Haag a 48% chance. Our model makes it 30%.
2Market
Open: 46% home · 24% draw · 30% away
Now: 48% home · 24% draw · 28% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Fortuna Sittard
Solid: the market over 5 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
ADO Den Haag
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- L. Reischl — out (Groin Injury)
- A. Pozo — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- M. Jimenez — out (Injury)
- M. Sin — out (Inactive)
- J. Hawkins — out (Hamstring Injury)
- C. Peupion — out (Knee Injury)
- D. Barany — out (Knee Injury)
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed · 5-3-2
- O. Romeny — out (Inactive)
- Y. Oukili — out (Groin Injury)
- S. Wylin — out (Injury)
- I. Marquez — out (Injury)
- K. Peterson — out (Inactive)
- S. Simons — out (Hamstring Injury)
- R. Bayram — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
ADO Den HaagDLLL
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Feyenoord 2–2(xG 0.2–2.5)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v GO Ahead Eagles 1–3
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Groningen 1–4
- Sat 8 Aug · A v AZ Alkmaar 0–2
Fortuna SittardWLWD
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Groningen 3–2(xG 0.9–1.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v AZ Alkmaar 0–2
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Cambuur 3–1
- Sat 8 Aug · A v PSV Eindhoven 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- ADO Den Haag have won 0 of their last 4.
- ADO Den Haag have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 3 of ADO Den Haag's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of ADO Den Haag's last 4.
- ADO Den Haag kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
- Fortuna Sittard have won 2 of their last 4.
- Fortuna Sittard have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 3 of Fortuna Sittard's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Fortuna Sittard's last 4.
- Fortuna Sittard kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
ADO Den Haag
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
Fortuna Sittard
Rest: 9 days · 1 match in 14d
Bingoal Stadium, Den Haag · Referee: Ingmar Oostrom, Netherlands
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win ADO Den Haag vs Fortuna Sittard?
- Our model makes Fortuna Sittard the most likely result at 43%. Most likely is not likely — at 43% it does not happen 57% of the time. The market instead favours ADO Den Haag at 48%.
- Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Fortuna Sittard?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for ADO Den Haag vs Fortuna Sittard?
- ADO Den Haag's reported absences and doubts include L. Reischl, A. Pozo, M. Jimenez, M. Sin and 3 others. Fortuna Sittard's include O. Romeny, Y. Oukili, S. Wylin, I. Marquez and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for ADO Den Haag vs Fortuna Sittard?
- ADO Den Haag line up in a 4-2-3-1, Fortuna Sittard in a 5-3-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.