Who will win Maritimo vs Benfica?

Our model makes Benfica the most likely result at 72%. Most likely is not likely — at 72% it does not happen 28% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 77%.

Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Benfica?

Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.

What are the confirmed lineups for Maritimo vs Benfica?

Maritimo line up in a 4-3-3, Benfica in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 5

MaritimovBenfica

Sat 5 Sep · 17:00 UTC

0 – 3 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

Benfica72% · Match result
Over 1.580% · Goals
Yes52% · Both teams to score

Our bet on this match

Both teams to score: Yes

Best price 2.10 at BetfairThe number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.

We make this 52% against a market price of 46% — 6 points of difference.
Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 65% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
Their last 7 matches between them averaged 3.6 goals, and 2.4 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
Both sides scored in 5 of those 7.

Our forecast makes Benfica the most likely of the three results, at 72% (we would not be surprised by anything from 61% to 81%). Most likely is not likely: at 72% this result does not happen 28% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 77%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Benfica a 77% chance. Our model makes it 72%.

BenficaModel 72% [61%–81%]Market 77%

2Market

Open: 7% home · 16% draw · 77% away

Now: 7% home · 16% draw · 77% away

Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.

Match result

Home10%vs7%+3pp

Draw18%vs16%+2pp

Away72%vs77%−5pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs61%

Under 2.5—vs39%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.580%vs82%−2pp

Under 1.520%vs18%+2pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs39%

Under 3.5—vs61%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes52%vs46%+6pp

No48%vs54%−6pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Maritimo

Confirmed · 4-3-3

No reported absences.

Benfica

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

MaritimoLDWW

Sat 29 Aug · A v Arouca 1–2(xG 0.7–1.6)
Sat 22 Aug · H v Academico Viseu 2–2
Sun 16 Aug · A v Famalicao 2–1
Sat 8 Aug · H v Casa Pia 1–0

BenficaWWD

Mon 31 Aug · H v Estoril 2–1(xG 2.0–0.4)
Mon 17 Aug · A v Casa Pia 7–0
Sun 9 Aug · H v Academico Viseu 2–2

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Maritimo

Maritimo have won 2 of their last 4.
Maritimo have scored in 4 of their last 4.
3 of Maritimo's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 3 of Maritimo's last 4.
Maritimo kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.

Benfica

Benfica have won 2 of their last 3.
Benfica have scored in 3 of their last 3.
3 of Benfica's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 2 of Benfica's last 3.
Benfica kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 3.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Maritimo

Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d

Benfica

Rest: 5 days · 1 match in 14d

Estadio do Maritimo, Funchal · Referee: Sergio Guelho, Portugal

8Red flags

Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.

Common questions

Who will win Maritimo vs Benfica?: Our model makes Benfica the most likely result at 72%. Most likely is not likely — at 72% it does not happen 28% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 77%.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Benfica?: Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
What are the confirmed lineups for Maritimo vs Benfica?: Maritimo line up in a 4-3-3, Benfica in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.