Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 5
EstrelavFamalicao
Estrela
Famalicao·
2 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Famalicao45% · Match result
- Over 1.573% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Famalicao the most likely of the three results, at 45% (we would not be surprised by anything from 39% to 51%). Most likely is not likely: at 45% this result does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 38%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Famalicao a 38% chance. Our model makes it 45%.
2Market
Open: 31% home · 30% draw · 40% away
Now: 32% home · 30% draw · 38% away
Moved −2pp — the market moved away from Famalicao
Solid: the market over 4 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Estrela
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
Famalicao
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
EstrelaWDD
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Nacional 3–2(xG 2.1–0.8)
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Alverca 2–2
- Sat 8 Aug · H v Sporting CP 2–2
FamalicaoDLLD
- Sun 30 Aug · H v GIL Vicente 0–0(xG 0.2–0.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Santa Clara 0–1
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Maritimo 1–2
- Fri 7 Aug · A v Estoril 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Estrela have won 1 of their last 3.
- Estrela have scored in 3 of their last 3.
- 3 of Estrela's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Estrela's last 3.
- Estrela kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 3.
- Famalicao have won 0 of their last 4.
- Famalicao have scored in 2 of their last 4.
- 1 of Famalicao's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Famalicao's last 4.
- Famalicao kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Estrela
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Famalicao
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Estádio José Gomes, Amadora · Referee: Vitor Ferreira, Portugal
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Estrela vs Famalicao?
- Our model makes Famalicao the most likely result at 45%. Most likely is not likely — at 45% it does not happen 55% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 38%.
- Will both teams score in Estrela vs Famalicao?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Estrela vs Famalicao?
- Estrela line up in a 4-2-3-1, Famalicao in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.