Who will win Sporting CP vs Nacional?

Our model makes Sporting CP the most likely result at 84%. Most likely is not likely — at 84% it does not happen 16% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 84%.

Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Nacional?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.

What are the confirmed lineups for Sporting CP vs Nacional?

Sporting CP line up in a 4-2-3-1, Nacional in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 5

Sporting CPvNacional

Sat 5 Sep · 19:30 UTC

2 – 0 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

Sporting CP84% · Match result
Over 1.585% · Goals
Yes51% · Both teams to score

Our bet on this match

Both teams to score: Yes

Best price 2.05 at Bet365The number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.

We make this 51% against a market price of 45% — 6 points of difference.
Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 67% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
Their last 8 matches between them averaged 3.6 goals, and 2.5 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
Both sides scored in 5 of those 8.

Our forecast makes Sporting CP the most likely of the three results, at 84% (we would not be surprised by anything from 78% to 88%). Most likely is not likely: at 84% this result does not happen 16% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 84%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Sporting CP a 84% chance. Our model makes it 84%.

Sporting CPModel 84% [78%–88%]Market 84%

2Market

Open: 84% home · 11% draw · 5% away

Now: 84% home · 11% draw · 5% away

Solid: the market over 2 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home84%vs84%0pp

Draw11%vs11%0pp

Away5%vs5%0pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs71%

Under 2.5—vs29%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.585%vs89%−4pp

Under 1.515%vs11%+4pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs48%

Under 3.5—vs52%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes51%vs45%+6pp

No49%vs55%−6pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Sporting CP

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

No reported absences.

Nacional

Confirmed · 3-4-2-1

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

Sporting CPWWWD

Fri 28 Aug · A v Rio Ave 4–0(xG 1.7–0.5)
Sat 22 Aug · H v Alverca 3–1
Fri 14 Aug · H v Vitória SC 3–2
Sat 8 Aug · A v Estrela 2–2

NacionalLLWD

Sun 30 Aug · H v Estrela 2–3(xG 0.8–2.1)
Sun 23 Aug · A v Vitória SC 0–1
Sun 16 Aug · H v Estoril 2–0
Mon 10 Aug · A v Santa Clara 2–2

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Sporting CP

Sporting CP have won 3 of their last 4.
Sporting CP have scored in 4 of their last 4.
4 of Sporting CP's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 3 of Sporting CP's last 4.
Sporting CP kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.

Nacional

Nacional have won 1 of their last 4.
Nacional have scored in 3 of their last 4.
2 of Nacional's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 2 of Nacional's last 4.
Nacional kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Sporting CP

Rest: 8 days · 2 matches in 14d

Nacional

Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d

Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon · Referee: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal

8Red flags

Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.

Common questions

Who will win Sporting CP vs Nacional?: Our model makes Sporting CP the most likely result at 84%. Most likely is not likely — at 84% it does not happen 16% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 84%.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Nacional?: Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance, against 49% that at least one side is kept out.
What are the confirmed lineups for Sporting CP vs Nacional?: Sporting CP line up in a 4-2-3-1, Nacional in a 3-4-2-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.