Who will win Alverca vs SC Braga?

Our model makes SC Braga the most likely result at 50%. Most likely is not likely — at 50% it does not happen 50% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 54%.

Will both teams score in Alverca vs SC Braga?

Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.

What are the confirmed lineups for Alverca vs SC Braga?

Alverca line up in a 3-4-3, SC Braga in a 3-4-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 5

AlvercavSC Braga

Sat 5 Sep · 17:00 UTC

1 – 2 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

SC Braga50% · Match result
Over 1.577% · Goals
Yes55% · Both teams to score

Our bet on this match

Both teams to score: Yes

Best price 1.95 at Bet365The number we compare ourselves against is the middle of the market. This is the longest price we can see, which is the one that decides whether the edge is real for you.

We make this 55% against a market price of 49% — 6 points of difference.
Allowing for what we do not know about this match, we are 65% sure our number is the higher of the two. That is our own uncertainty, not the chance the bet wins.
Their last 6 matches between them averaged 2.8 goals, and 1.4 expected across the 2 we have expected goals for.
Both sides scored in 4 of those 6.

Our forecast makes SC Braga the most likely of the three results, at 50% (we would not be surprised by anything from 41% to 58%). Most likely is not likely: at 50% this result does not happen 50% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 54%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives SC Braga a 54% chance. Our model makes it 50%.

SC BragaModel 50% [41%–58%]Market 54%

2Market

Open: 20% home · 27% draw · 54% away

Now: 20% home · 27% draw · 54% away

Only one price captured so far — drift needs at least two.

Match result

Home24%vs20%+4pp

Draw26%vs27%−1pp

Away50%vs54%−4pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs47%

Under 2.5—vs53%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.577%vs72%+5pp

Under 1.523%vs28%−5pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs25%

Under 3.5—vs75%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes55%vs49%+6pp

No45%vs51%−6pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Alverca

Confirmed · 3-4-3

No reported absences.

SC Braga

Confirmed · 3-4-3

No reported absences.

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

AlvercaDLDL

Sat 29 Aug · H v Santa Clara 1–1(xG 0.4–1.4)
Sat 22 Aug · A v Sporting CP 1–3
Sat 15 Aug · H v Estrela 2–2
Sun 9 Aug · A v FC Porto 0–2

SC BragaWD

Mon 31 Aug · H v Vitória SC 1–0(xG 0.8–0.2)
Sun 9 Aug · A v Moreirense 2–2

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Alverca

Alverca have won 0 of their last 4.
Alverca have scored in 3 of their last 4.
2 of Alverca's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 3 of Alverca's last 4.
Alverca kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.

SC Braga

SC Braga have won 1 of their last 2.
SC Braga have scored in 2 of their last 2.
1 of SC Braga's last 2 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 1 of SC Braga's last 2.
SC Braga kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 2.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Alverca

Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d

SC Braga

Rest: 5 days · 1 match in 14d

FC Alverca Sports Complex, Alverca do Ribatejo · Referee: Luís Godinho, Portugal

8Red flags

Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.

Common questions

Who will win Alverca vs SC Braga?: Our model makes SC Braga the most likely result at 50%. Most likely is not likely — at 50% it does not happen 50% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 54%.
Will both teams score in Alverca vs SC Braga?: Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
What are the confirmed lineups for Alverca vs SC Braga?: Alverca line up in a 3-4-3, SC Braga in a 3-4-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.