Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 5
FC PortovMoreirense
FC Porto
Moreirense·
2 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- FC Porto77% · Match result
- Over 1.577% · Goals
- No53% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes FC Porto the most likely of the three results, at 77% (we would not be surprised by anything from 70% to 83%). Most likely is not likely: at 77% this result does not happen 23% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 85%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives FC Porto a 85% chance. Our model makes it 77%.
2Market
Open: 81% home · 14% draw · 5% away
Now: 85% home · 11% draw · 4% away
Moved +4pp — the market moved towards FC Porto
Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
FC Porto
Confirmed · 4-3-3
No reported absences.
Moreirense
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
FC PortoWWWW
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Academico Viseu 3–0(xG 1.5–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Arouca 2–0
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Rio Ave 2–0
- Sun 9 Aug · H v Alverca 2–0
MoreirenseWLD
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Casa Pia 1–0(xG 0.3–0.8)
- Sun 16 Aug · A v Arouca 0–4
- Sun 9 Aug · H v SC Braga 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- FC Porto have won 4 of their last 4.
- FC Porto have scored in 4 of their last 4.
- 1 of FC Porto's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 0 of FC Porto's last 4.
- FC Porto kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 4.
- Moreirense have won 1 of their last 3.
- Moreirense have scored in 2 of their last 3.
- 2 of Moreirense's last 3 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Moreirense's last 3.
- Moreirense kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 3.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
FC Porto
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Moreirense
Rest: 5 days · 1 match in 14d
Estádio do Dragão, Porto · Referee: Antonio Nobre, Portugal
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win FC Porto vs Moreirense?
- Our model makes FC Porto the most likely result at 77%. Most likely is not likely — at 77% it does not happen 23% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 85%.
- Will both teams score in FC Porto vs Moreirense?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 47% chance, against 53% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for FC Porto vs Moreirense?
- FC Porto line up in a 4-3-3, Moreirense in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.