Premier League · Regular Season - 3
IpswichvLiverpool
Ipswich
Liverpool·
0 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Liverpool58% · Match result
- Over 1.582% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Liverpool the most likely of the three results, at 58% (we would not be surprised by anything from 48% to 68%). Most likely is not likely: at 58% this result does not happen 42% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 64%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Liverpool a 64% chance. Our model makes it 58%.
2Market
Open: 17% home · 20% draw · 63% away
Now: 16% home · 20% draw · 64% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Liverpool
Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Ipswich
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- A. Matusiwa — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Philogene — out (Ankle Injury)
- Florentino — out (Inactive)
- J. Taylor — out (Knee Injury)
Liverpool
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- J. Gomez — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Kerkez — doubtful (Injury)
- B. Barcola — doubtful (Injury)
- G. Leoni — out (Knee Injury)
- H. Elliott — out (Coach's decision)
- H. Ekitike — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
- F. Chiesa — out (Back Injury)
- C. Bradley — out (Knee Injury)
- S. Bajcetic — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
IpswichLWLLL
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Manchester United 2–5(xG 2.0–4.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Sunderland 2–1
- Sun 25 May · H v West Ham 1–3
- Sun 18 May · A v Leicester 0–2
- Sat 10 May · H v Brentford 0–1
LiverpoolDDDLD
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Nottingham Forest 2–2(xG 1.6–2.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Newcastle 2–2(xG 3.0–1.6)
- Sun 24 May · H v Brentford 1–1
- Fri 15 May · A v Aston Villa 2–4
- Sat 9 May · H v Chelsea 1–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Ipswich have won 1 of their last 5.
- Ipswich have scored in 3 of their last 5.
- 3 of Ipswich's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Ipswich's last 5.
- Ipswich kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Liverpool have won 0 of their last 5.
- Liverpool have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Liverpool's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Liverpool's last 5.
- Liverpool kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 2 prior meetings on record — thin sample.
In their last 2 meetings, Ipswich have won 0, Liverpool 2, with 0 drawn.
- Ipswich W–D–L
- 0–0–2
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 2
- Both scored
- 1 of 2
- Liverpool 4–1 Ipswich
- Ipswich 0–2 Liverpool
7Context
Ipswich
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Liverpool
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Portman Road Stadium, Ipswich · Referee: Darren England, England
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Common questions
- Who will win Ipswich vs Liverpool?
- Our model makes Liverpool the most likely result at 58%. Most likely is not likely — at 58% it does not happen 42% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 64%.
- Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Liverpool?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Ipswich vs Liverpool?
- Ipswich's reported absences and doubts include A. Matusiwa, J. Philogene, Florentino, J. Taylor. Liverpool's include J. Gomez, M. Kerkez, B. Barcola, G. Leoni and 5 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Ipswich vs Liverpool?
- Ipswich line up in a 4-2-3-1, Liverpool in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Liverpool?
- In their last 2 meetings, Ipswich have won 0, Liverpool 2, with 0 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of those 2 meetings, and both teams scored in 1.