Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 3
LyonvAuxerre
Lyon
Auxerre·
3 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Lyon58% · Match result
- Over 1.578% · Goals
- Yes55% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Lyon the most likely of the three results, at 58% (we would not be surprised by anything from 49% to 67%). Most likely is not likely: at 58% this result does not happen 42% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 68%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Lyon a 68% chance. Our model makes it 58%.
2Market
Open: 63% home · 21% draw · 15% away
Now: 68% home · 19% draw · 13% away
Moved +5pp — the market moved towards Lyon
Solid: the market over 12 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Lyon
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- R. Kluivert — out (Inactive)
- N. Tagliafico — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. de Carvalho — out (Inactive)
- M. Ouedraogo — out (Inactive)
- K. Nakamura — out (Coach's decision)
- S. Kango — out (Inactive)
- A. Hamdani — out (Inactive)
- A. Gomes Rodriguez — out (Inactive)
- J. Duranville — out (Muscle Injury)
- M. Niakhate — out (Ankle Injury)
- K. Merah — out (Ankle Injury)
- A. Maitland-Niles — out (Rest)
- Abner Vinicius — out (Rest)
- N. Kamara — out (Inactive)
- R. Himbert — out (Inactive)
Auxerre
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- T. Siwe — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Tuanzebe — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- F. Oppegard — out (Illness)
- S. Fofana — out (Groin Injury)
- E. Legros — doubtful (Injury)
- R. Labeau Lascary — out (Loan agreement)
- T. Bair — out (Suspended)
- Wei Xiangxin — out (Inactive)
- F. Sierralta — out (Injury)
- M. Senaya — out (Injury)
- B. Okoh — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Makosso — out (Red Card)
- A. Diousse — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
LyonDWLLW
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Le Havre 1–1(xG 1.7–0.7)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Toulouse 2–0
- Sun 17 May · H v Lens 0–4
- Sun 10 May · A v Toulouse 1–2
- Sun 3 May · H v Rennes 4–2
AuxerreLLWWW
- Sat 29 Aug · H v Angers 1–3(xG 1.3–1.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Lens 2–5
- Sun 17 May · A v Lille 2–0
- Sun 10 May · H v Nice 2–1
- Sun 3 May · H v Angers 3–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Lyon have won 2 of their last 5.
- Lyon have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Lyon's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Lyon's last 5.
- Lyon kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- Auxerre have won 3 of their last 5.
- Auxerre have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Auxerre's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Auxerre's last 5.
- Auxerre kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 6 meetings, Lyon have won 3, Auxerre 1, with 2 drawn.
- Lyon W–D–L
- 3–2–1
- Over 2.5
- 5 of 6
- Both scored
- 5 of 6
- Lyon 3–2 Auxerre
- Auxerre 0–0 Lyon
- Auxerre 1–3 Lyon
- Lyon 2–2 Auxerre
- Auxerre 2–1 Lyon
- Lyon 2–1 Auxerre
7Context
Lyon
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Auxerre
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Groupama Stadium, Décines-Charpieu · Referee: Ruddy Buquet, France
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Lyon vs Auxerre?
- Our model makes Lyon the most likely result at 58%. Most likely is not likely — at 58% it does not happen 42% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 68%.
- Will both teams score in Lyon vs Auxerre?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance, against 45% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Lyon vs Auxerre?
- Lyon's reported absences and doubts include R. Kluivert, N. Tagliafico, M. de Carvalho, M. Ouedraogo and 11 others. Auxerre's include T. Siwe, A. Tuanzebe, F. Oppegard, S. Fofana and 9 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Lyon vs Auxerre?
- Lyon line up in a 4-2-3-1, Auxerre in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Auxerre?
- In their last 6 meetings, Lyon have won 3, Auxerre 1, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 5 of those 6 meetings, and both teams scored in 5.