Who will win Genoa vs Como?

Our model makes Como the most likely result at 50%. Most likely is not likely — at 50% it does not happen 50% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 55%.

Will both teams score in Genoa vs Como?

Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.

What is the team news for Genoa vs Como?

Genoa's reported absences and doubts include E. Havel, J. Vasquez, L. Venturino, C. Drameh and 1 other. Como's include M. Kean, J. Addai. Each player's status is in the availability section above.

What are the confirmed lineups for Genoa vs Como?

Genoa line up in a 3-4-1-2, Como in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Como?

In their last 4 meetings, Genoa have won 0, Como 2, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 0 of those 4 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.

Serie A · Regular Season - 3

GenoavComo

Fri 4 Sep · 18:45 UTC

1 – 4 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

Como50% · Match result
Over 1.574% · Goals
Yes52% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes Como the most likely of the three results, at 50% (we would not be surprised by anything from 44% to 58%). Most likely is not likely: at 50% this result does not happen 50% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 55%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Como a 55% chance. Our model makes it 50%.

ComoModel 50% [44%–58%]Market 55%

2Market

Open: 19% home · 28% draw · 53% away

Now: 18% home · 27% draw · 55% away

Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Como

Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home23%vs18%+5pp

Draw27%vs27%0pp

Away50%vs55%−5pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs47%

Under 2.5—vs53%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.574%vs73%+1pp

Under 1.526%vs27%−1pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs26%

Under 3.5—vs74%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes52%vs50%+2pp

No48%vs50%−2pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Genoa

Confirmed · 3-4-1-2

E. Havel — out (Ankle Injury)
J. Vasquez — out (Red Card)
L. Venturino — out (Knee Injury)
C. Drameh — out (Inactive)
H. J. Traore — out (Muscle Injury)

Como

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

M. Kean — doubtful (Transfer negotiations)
J. Addai — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

GenoaLLLLD

Sun 30 Aug · A v Lazio 0–1(xG 0.6–1.6)
Sat 22 Aug · H v Napoli 0–2
Sun 24 May · A v Lecce 0–1
Sun 17 May · H v AC Milan 1–2
Sun 10 May · A v Fiorentina 0–0

ComoWDWWW

Sun 30 Aug · A v Napoli 2–1(xG 1.0–1.4)
Sat 22 Aug · A v Udinese 1–1
Sun 24 May · A v Cremonese 4–1
Sun 17 May · H v Parma 1–0
Sun 10 May · A v Hellas Verona 1–0

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Genoa

Genoa have won 0 of their last 5.
Genoa have scored in 1 of their last 5.
1 of Genoa's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 1 of Genoa's last 5.
Genoa kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.

Como

Como have won 4 of their last 5.
Como have scored in 5 of their last 5.
2 of Como's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 3 of Como's last 5.
Como kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.

6Head-to-head

Only 4 prior meetings on record — thin sample.

In their last 4 meetings, Genoa have won 0, Como 2, with 2 drawn.

Genoa W–D–L: 0–2–2
Over 2.5: 0 of 4
Both scored: 2 of 4

2026Genoa 0–2 Como
2025Como 1–1 Genoa
2025Como 1–0 Genoa
2024Genoa 1–1 Como

7Context

Genoa

Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d

Como

Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d

Luigi Ferraris, Genova · Referee: Marco Guida, Italy

8Red flags

Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.

Common questions

Who will win Genoa vs Como?: Our model makes Como the most likely result at 50%. Most likely is not likely — at 50% it does not happen 50% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 55%.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Como?: Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Genoa vs Como?: Genoa's reported absences and doubts include E. Havel, J. Vasquez, L. Venturino, C. Drameh and 1 other. Como's include M. Kean, J. Addai. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Genoa vs Como?: Genoa line up in a 3-4-1-2, Como in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Como?: In their last 4 meetings, Genoa have won 0, Como 2, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 0 of those 4 meetings, and both teams scored in 2.