Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 3
Paris Saint GermainvMonaco
Paris Saint Germain
Monaco·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Paris Saint Germain67% · Match result
- Over 1.585% · Goals
- Yes59% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Paris Saint Germain the most likely of the three results, at 67% (we would not be surprised by anything from 58% to 74%). Most likely is not likely: at 67% this result does not happen 33% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 72%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Paris Saint Germain a 72% chance. Our model makes it 67%.
2Market
Open: 68% home · 18% draw · 14% away
Now: 72% home · 17% draw · 12% away
Moved +4pp — the market moved towards Paris Saint Germain
Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Paris Saint Germain
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- Q. Ndjantou — out (Inactive)
- A. Hakimi — out (Thigh Injury)
- I. Zabarnyi — out (Coach's decision)
- S. Mayulu — out (Inactive)
- A. Longoni — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. Digne — out (Inactive)
- D. Doue — doubtful (Muscle Injury)
- J. Neves — out (Illness)
- N. Mendes — out (Red Card)
- I. Mbaye — out (Inactive)
- O. Dembele — out (Rest)
- B. Barcola — out (Inactive)
Monaco
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- T. Minamino — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- J. Teze — out (Injury)
- A. Soubeir — out (Injury)
- S. Idumbo — out (Groin Injury)
- M. Biereth — out (Inactive)
- M. Coulibaly — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Fati — out (Calf Injury)
- M. Salisu — out (Knee Injury)
- C. Mawissa — out (Yellow Cards)
- E. Diop — out (Injury)
- F. Balogun — out (Injury)
- M. Abline — out (Foot Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Paris Saint GermainDDLWW
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Lille 2–2(xG 1.3–1.1)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Rennes 2–2(xG 2.2–0.9)
- Sun 17 May · A v Paris FC 1–2
- Wed 13 May · A v Lens 2–0
- Sun 10 May · H v Stade Brestois 29 1–0
MonacoWWLLW
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Marseille 2–0(xG 1.5–1.2)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Le Havre 1–0(xG 1.4–0.6)
- Sun 17 May · A v Strasbourg 4–5
- Sun 10 May · H v Lille 0–1
- Sat 2 May · A v Metz 2–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Paris Saint Germain have won 2 of their last 5.
- Paris Saint Germain have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Paris Saint Germain's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Paris Saint Germain's last 5.
- Paris Saint Germain kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Monaco have won 3 of their last 5.
- Monaco have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 2 of Monaco's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 2 of Monaco's last 5.
- Monaco kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Paris Saint Germain have won 4, Monaco 4, with 2 drawn.
- Paris Saint Germain W–D–L
- 4–2–4
- Over 2.5
- 6 of 10
- Both scored
- 6 of 10
- Paris Saint Germain 1–3 Monaco
- Monaco 1–0 Paris Saint Germain
- Paris Saint Germain 4–1 Monaco
- Monaco 2–4 Paris Saint Germain
- Monaco 0–0 Paris Saint Germain
- Paris Saint Germain 5–2 Monaco
- Monaco 3–1 Paris Saint Germain
- Paris Saint Germain 1–1 Monaco
- Monaco 3–0 Paris Saint Germain
- Paris Saint Germain 2–0 Monaco
7Context
Paris Saint Germain
Rest: 7 days · 2 matches in 14d
Monaco
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Parc des Princes, Paris · Referee: Jérôme Brisard, France
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco?
- Our model makes Paris Saint Germain the most likely result at 67%. Most likely is not likely — at 67% it does not happen 33% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 72%.
- Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance, against 41% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco?
- Paris Saint Germain's reported absences and doubts include Q. Ndjantou, A. Hakimi, I. Zabarnyi, S. Mayulu and 8 others. Monaco's include T. Minamino, J. Teze, A. Soubeir, S. Idumbo and 8 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco?
- Paris Saint Germain line up in a 4-3-3, Monaco in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Monaco?
- In their last 10 meetings, Paris Saint Germain have won 4, Monaco 4, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 6.