La Liga · Regular Season - 4
Real BetisvReal Madrid
Real Betis
Real Madrid·
1 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Real Madrid46% · Match result
- Over 1.579% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Real Madrid the most likely of the three results, at 46% (we would not be surprised by anything from 38% to 53%). Most likely is not likely: at 46% this result does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 68%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Real Madrid a 68% chance. Our model makes it 46%.
2Market
Open: 13% home · 18% draw · 69% away
Now: 14% home · 18% draw · 68% away
Moved +1pp — the market moved towards Real Betis
Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Real Betis
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- J. Morante — out (Injury)
- A. Ezzalzouli — out (Knee Injury)
- I. Losada — out (Inactive)
- D. Llorente — out (Broken nose)
- D. Ceballos — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
- T. Parrott — out (Inactive)
- A. Ruibal — out (Knee Injury)
- G. Petit — out (Muscle Injury)
- G. Lo Celso — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. Conde — out (Shoulder Injury)
Real Madrid
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- R. Asencio — out (Muscle Injury)
- A. Tchouameni — out (Muscle Injury)
- Endrick — out (Muscle Injury)
- Rodrygo — out (Knee Injury)
- T. Pitarch — out (Knee Injury)
- F. Mendy — out (Hip Injury)
- Eder Militao — out (Hamstring Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Real BetisLWWWL
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Levante 2–5(xG 2.0–3.0)
- Tue 25 Aug · A v Valencia 1–0(xG 0.7–1.1)
- Fri 21 Aug · H v Real Sociedad 1–0
- Sat 23 May · H v Levante 2–1
- Sun 17 May · A v Barcelona 1–3
Real MadridWWWWW
- Sun 30 Aug · H v Malaga 4–0(xG 2.3–0.7)
- Wed 26 Aug · H v Real Sociedad 4–1(xG 3.1–0.6)
- Sat 22 Aug · A v Espanyol 2–1
- Sat 23 May · H v Athletic Club 4–2
- Sun 17 May · A v Sevilla 1–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Real Betis have won 3 of their last 5.
- Real Betis have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Real Betis's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Real Betis's last 5.
- Real Betis kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
- Real Madrid have won 5 of their last 5.
- Real Madrid have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Real Madrid's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Real Madrid's last 5.
- Real Madrid kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 10 meetings, Real Betis have won 1, Real Madrid 4, with 5 drawn.
- Real Betis W–D–L
- 1–5–4
- Over 2.5
- 3 of 10
- Both scored
- 5 of 10
- Real Betis 1–1 Real Madrid
- Real Madrid 5–1 Real Betis
- Real Betis 2–1 Real Madrid
- Real Madrid 2–0 Real Betis
- Real Madrid 0–0 Real Betis
- Real Betis 1–1 Real Madrid
- Real Betis 0–0 Real Madrid
- Real Madrid 2–1 Real Betis
- Real Madrid 0–0 Real Betis
- Real Betis 0–1 Real Madrid
7Context
Real Betis
Rest: 6 days · 3 matches in 14d
Real Madrid
Rest: 5 days · 3 matches in 14d
Estadio de la Cartuja, Seville · Referee: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
8Red flags
Fixture congestion
One side has played three or more league matches in the fortnight before this one.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Real Betis vs Real Madrid?
- Our model makes Real Madrid the most likely result at 46%. Most likely is not likely — at 46% it does not happen 54% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 68%.
- Will both teams score in Real Betis vs Real Madrid?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Real Betis vs Real Madrid?
- Real Betis's reported absences and doubts include J. Morante, A. Ezzalzouli, I. Losada, D. Llorente and 6 others. Real Madrid's include R. Asencio, A. Tchouameni, Endrick, Rodrygo and 3 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Real Betis vs Real Madrid?
- Real Betis line up in a 4-2-3-1, Real Madrid in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Real Madrid?
- In their last 10 meetings, Real Betis have won 1, Real Madrid 4, with 5 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of those 10 meetings, and both teams scored in 5.