Jupiler Pro League · Regular Season - 5
Lommel UnitedvClub Brugge KV
Lommel United
Club Brugge KV·
0 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- Club Brugge KV56% · Match result
- Over 1.575% · Goals
- Yes52% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Club Brugge KV the most likely of the three results, at 56% (we would not be surprised by anything from 41% to 69%). Most likely is not likely: at 56% this result does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 76%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Club Brugge KV a 76% chance. Our model makes it 56%.
2Market
Open: 9% home · 14% draw · 77% away
Now: 9% home · 15% draw · 76% away
Moved −1pp — the market moved away from Club Brugge KV
Solid: the market over 10 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Lommel United
Confirmed · 4-1-4-1
No reported absences.
Club Brugge KV
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
No reported absences.
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Lommel UnitedWWLD
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Cercle Brugge 1–0(xG 1.6–1.3)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v KVC Westerlo 4–0
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Charleroi 0–1
- Sat 8 Aug · A v St. Truiden 1–1
Club Brugge KVLWWW
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Gent 1–2(xG 0.7–1.4)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Cercle Brugge 1–0
- Sat 15 Aug · A v OH Leuven 3–0
- Fri 7 Aug · H v Kortrijk 3–0
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Lommel United have won 2 of their last 4.
- Lommel United have scored in 3 of their last 4.
- 1 of Lommel United's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Lommel United's last 4.
- Lommel United kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 4.
- Club Brugge KV have won 3 of their last 4.
- Club Brugge KV have scored in 4 of their last 4.
- 3 of Club Brugge KV's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 1 of Club Brugge KV's last 4.
- Club Brugge KV kept a clean sheet in 3 of their last 4.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Lommel United
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Club Brugge KV
Rest: 5 days · 2 matches in 14d
Soevereinstadion, Lommel · Referee: Simon Bourdeaud'hui, Belgium
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win Lommel United vs Club Brugge KV?
- Our model makes Club Brugge KV the most likely result at 56%. Most likely is not likely — at 56% it does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 76%.
- Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Club Brugge KV?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance, against 48% that at least one side is kept out.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Lommel United vs Club Brugge KV?
- Lommel United line up in a 4-1-4-1, Club Brugge KV in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.