Bundesliga · Regular Season - 2
VfB Stuttgartv1. FC Köln
VfB Stuttgart
1. FC Köln·
4 – 1 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- VfB Stuttgart60% · Match result
- Over 1.583% · Goals
- Yes59% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes VfB Stuttgart the most likely of the three results, at 60% (we would not be surprised by anything from 53% to 67%). Most likely is not likely: at 60% this result does not happen 40% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 66%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives VfB Stuttgart a 66% chance. Our model makes it 60%.
2Market
Open: 63% home · 20% draw · 17% away
Now: 66% home · 19% draw · 15% away
Moved +3pp — the market moved towards VfB Stuttgart
Solid: the market over 11 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
VfB Stuttgart
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- N. Nartey — out (Thigh Injury)
- M. Herwerth — out (Injury)
- L. Jaquez — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Tomas — out (Muscle Injury)
- D. Zagadou — out (Muscle Injury)
- C. Fuhrich — out (Muscle Injury)
- L. Assignon — out (Shoulder Injury)
- J. Arevalo — out (Back Injury)
- D. Seimen — out (Thigh Injury)
- L. Sauer — out (Muscle Injury)
- J. Diehl — out (Muscle Injury)
1. FC Köln
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- P. Okon-Engstler — out (Injury)
- S. El Mala — out (Illness)
- L. Waldschmidt — out (Muscle Injury)
- S. Sebulonsen — out (Muscle Injury)
- T. Dallinga — out (Illness)
- T. Hubers — out (Knee Injury)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
VfB StuttgartLDWDD
- Fri 28 Aug · A v Bayern München 1–5(xG 0.9–3.9)
- Sat 16 May · A v Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2
- Sat 9 May · H v Bayer Leverkusen 3–1
- Sat 2 May · A v 1899 Hoffenheim 3–3
- Sun 26 Apr · H v Werder Bremen 1–1
1. FC KölnWLLDL
- Sat 29 Aug · H v 1899 Hoffenheim 3–2(xG 1.7–1.8)
- Sat 16 May · A v Bayern München 1–5
- Sun 10 May · H v FC Heidenheim 1–3
- Sat 2 May · A v Union Berlin 2–2
- Sat 25 Apr · H v Bayer Leverkusen 1–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- VfB Stuttgart have won 1 of their last 5.
- VfB Stuttgart have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of VfB Stuttgart's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of VfB Stuttgart's last 5.
- VfB Stuttgart kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- 1. FC Köln have won 1 of their last 5.
- 1. FC Köln have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 5 of 1. FC Köln's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of 1. FC Köln's last 5.
- 1. FC Köln kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
In their last 8 meetings, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, 1. FC Köln 1, with 2 drawn.
- VfB Stuttgart W–D–L
- 5–2–1
- Over 2.5
- 4 of 8
- Both scored
- 4 of 8
- VfB Stuttgart 3–1 1. FC Köln
- 1. FC Köln 1–2 VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart 1–1 1. FC Köln
- 1. FC Köln 0–2 VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart 3–0 1. FC Köln
- 1. FC Köln 0–0 VfB Stuttgart
- VfB Stuttgart 2–1 1. FC Köln
- 1. FC Köln 1–0 VfB Stuttgart
7Context
VfB Stuttgart
Rest: 7 days · 1 match in 14d
1. FC Köln
Rest: 6 days · 1 match in 14d
Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · Referee: Christian Dingert, Germany
8Red flags
No flags raised for this fixture right now.
Common questions
- Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
- Our model makes VfB Stuttgart the most likely result at 60%. Most likely is not likely — at 60% it does not happen 40% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 66%.
- Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance, against 41% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
- VfB Stuttgart's reported absences and doubts include N. Nartey, M. Herwerth, L. Jaquez, T. Tomas and 7 others. 1. FC Köln's include P. Okon-Engstler, S. El Mala, L. Waldschmidt, S. Sebulonsen and 2 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
- VfB Stuttgart line up in a 4-4-2, 1. FC Köln in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.
- What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and 1. FC Köln?
- In their last 8 meetings, VfB Stuttgart have won 5, 1. FC Köln 1, with 2 drawn. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of those 8 meetings, and both teams scored in 4.