Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?

Our model makes Sparta Rotterdam the most likely result at 53%. Most likely is not likely — at 53% it does not happen 47% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 50%.

Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?

Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.

What is the team news for Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?

Sparta Rotterdam's reported absences and doubts include S. Mito, R. van Cruijsen, A. Kostic, J. Baas. PEC Zwolle's include R. Thomas, S. Floranus, F. Krastev, J. Burger and 1 other. Each player's status is in the availability section above.

What are the confirmed lineups for Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?

Sparta Rotterdam line up in a 4-2-3-1, PEC Zwolle in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.

Eredivisie · Regular Season - 5

Sparta RotterdamvPEC Zwolle

Fri 4 Sep · 18:00 UTC

2 – 2 (FT)

1Headline

What we think

Sparta Rotterdam53% · Match result
Over 1.579% · Goals
Yes56% · Both teams to score

Recommended bet: none on this match

We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.

Our forecast makes Sparta Rotterdam the most likely of the three results, at 53% (we would not be surprised by anything from 42% to 63%). Most likely is not likely: at 53% this result does not happen 47% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 50%.

Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.

On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.

For comparison, the market gives Sparta Rotterdam a 50% chance. Our model makes it 53%.

Sparta RotterdamModel 53% [42%–63%]Market 50%

2Market

Open: 53% home · 24% draw · 24% away

Now: 50% home · 24% draw · 26% away

Moved −3pp — the market moved away from Sparta Rotterdam

Solid: the market over 12 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.

Match result

Home53%vs50%+3pp

Draw24%vs24%0pp

Away23%vs26%−3pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 2.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 2.5—vs63%

Under 2.5—vs37%

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 1.5

Over 1.579%vs85%−6pp

Under 1.521%vs15%+6pp

■ ours · ■ market

Goals over 3.5

Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.

Over 3.5—vs41%

Under 3.5—vs59%

■ ours · ■ market

Both teams to score

Yes56%vs64%−8pp

No44%vs36%+8pp

■ ours · ■ market

Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.

3Availability

Sparta Rotterdam

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

S. Mito — out (Inactive)
R. van Cruijsen — out (Injury)
A. Kostic — out (Lacking Match Fitness)
J. Baas — out (Yellow Cards)

PEC Zwolle

Confirmed · 4-2-3-1

R. Thomas — out (Injury)
S. Floranus — out (Red Card)
F. Krastev — out (Achilles Tendon Injury)
J. Burger — out (Knock)
Y. Namli — out (Knee Injury)

4Form

The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.

Sparta RotterdamLDWL

Sat 29 Aug · A v Excelsior 1–2(xG 1.0–1.3)
Sat 22 Aug · H v Utrecht 3–3
Fri 14 Aug · A v Telstar 3–1
Sun 9 Aug · H v Feyenoord 0–1

PEC ZwolleLWLL

Sat 29 Aug · H v NEC Nijmegen 1–3(xG 2.0–1.9)
Sat 22 Aug · A v Heerenveen 2–0
Sun 16 Aug · A v Twente 1–3
Sun 9 Aug · H v Ajax 0–2

5Trends

How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.

Sparta Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam have won 1 of their last 4.
Sparta Rotterdam have scored in 3 of their last 4.
3 of Sparta Rotterdam's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 3 of Sparta Rotterdam's last 4.
Sparta Rotterdam kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 4.

PEC Zwolle

PEC Zwolle have won 1 of their last 4.
PEC Zwolle have scored in 3 of their last 4.
2 of PEC Zwolle's last 4 went over 2.5 goals.
Both teams scored in 2 of PEC Zwolle's last 4.
PEC Zwolle kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 4.

6Head-to-head

No prior meetings on record.

7Context

Sparta Rotterdam

Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d

PEC Zwolle

Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d

Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam · Referee: Stan Teuben, Netherlands

8Red flags

Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.

Common questions

Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?: Our model makes Sparta Rotterdam the most likely result at 53%. Most likely is not likely — at 53% it does not happen 47% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 50%.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?: Our model gives both teams to score a 56% chance, against 44% that at least one side is kept out.
What is the team news for Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?: Sparta Rotterdam's reported absences and doubts include S. Mito, R. van Cruijsen, A. Kostic, J. Baas. PEC Zwolle's include R. Thomas, S. Floranus, F. Krastev, J. Burger and 1 other. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
What are the confirmed lineups for Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?: Sparta Rotterdam line up in a 4-2-3-1, PEC Zwolle in a 4-2-3-1. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.