Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 24
CF MontrealvCharlotte
CF Montreal
Charlotte·
1 – 2 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
1–21.4–1.5 goals
Likeliest exact score 1–1 (12%), then 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). CF Montreal and Charlotte finish on some other score 71% of the time. We show 1–2 above because it is the likeliest score that agrees with what we call on this match.
| CF / Cha | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, CF Montreal down the side and Charlotte across. These 99.2% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 0.8% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Charlotte37% · Match result
- Over 1.579% · Goals
- Yes58% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Charlotte the most likely of the three results, at 37% (we would not be surprised by anything from 27% to 47%). Most likely is not likely: at 37% this result does not happen 63% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes CF Montreal the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 35%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives CF Montreal a 41% chance. Our model makes it 37%.
2Market
Open: 42% home · 25% draw · 33% away
Now: 41% home · 25% draw · 35% away
Moved +2pp — the market moved towards Charlotte
Solid: the market over 9 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
CF Montreal
Confirmed · 4-2-3-1
- G. Synchuk — out (International duty)
- N. Streit — out (International duty)
- V. Radojevic — out (International duty)
- E. Morales — out (International duty)
- W. Carmona — out (International duty)
- T. Gillier — out (Upper-Body Injury)
- B. Vera — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- B. Ceballos — out (Yellow Cards)
- F. Herbers — out (Leg Injury)
- B. Hidalgo — out (Groin Injury)
- T. Aviles — out (Hamstring Injury)
- S. Ibrahim — out (Back Injury)
- F. Amaya — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- D. Sealy — out (International duty)
- S. Piette — out (Yellow Cards)
- O. Escobar — out (International duty)
Charlotte
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- A. Johnson — out (International duty)
- D. Schnegg — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Westwood — out (Red Card)
- N. Berchimas — out (Foot Injury)
- H. Kessler — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- I. Toklomati — out (International duty)
- R. Aloko — out (International duty)
- L. Abada — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
CF MontrealLLDWD
- Sat 5 Sep · A v Philadelphia Union 0–2
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Inter Miami 1–7(xG 0.9–3.0)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Los Angeles Galaxy 2–2
- Wed 19 Aug · A v Columbus Crew 2–1
- Sat 15 Aug · H v DC United 1–1
CharlotteDWWDW
- Sat 5 Sep · H v Houston Dynamo 0–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Atlanta United FC 2–0(xG 1.6–0.9)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v DC United 3–1
- Wed 19 Aug · A v Toronto FC 3–3
- Sat 15 Aug · H v Columbus Crew 3–1
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- CF Montreal have won 1 of their last 5.
- CF Montreal have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of CF Montreal's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of CF Montreal's last 5.
- CF Montreal kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Charlotte have won 3 of their last 5.
- Charlotte have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of Charlotte's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Charlotte's last 5.
- Charlotte kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
CF Montreal
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Charlotte
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
Saputo Stadium, Montreal · Referee: R. Vazquez
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win CF Montreal vs Charlotte?
- Our model makes Charlotte the most likely result at 37%. Most likely is not likely — at 37% it does not happen 63% of the time. The market instead favours CF Montreal at 41%.
- Will both teams score in CF Montreal vs Charlotte?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance, against 42% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for CF Montreal vs Charlotte?
- CF Montreal's reported absences and doubts include G. Synchuk, N. Streit, V. Radojevic, E. Morales and 12 others. Charlotte's include A. Johnson, D. Schnegg, A. Westwood, N. Berchimas and 4 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for CF Montreal vs Charlotte?
- CF Montreal line up in a 4-2-3-1, Charlotte in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.