Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 24
Philadelphia UnionvFC Cincinnati
Philadelphia Union
FC Cincinnati·
5 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
We expect
2–12.1–1.3 goals
Likeliest exact score 2–1 (10%), then 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%). Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati finish on some other score 74% of the time.
| Phi / FC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Percentage chance of each exact scoreline, Philadelphia Union down the side and FC Cincinnati across. These 97.6% cover every result up to 5 goals a side; the remaining 2.4% is spread across higher scores.
Every other number on this page is a sum of this grid — the match result is the cells either side of the diagonal, over 2.5 is everything totalling three or more. We publish calibration for those sums, not for individual scorelines: no gate has ever graded our chance of exactly 2–1, so read a single cell as the shape of the forecast rather than a number we stand behind.
What we think
- Philadelphia Union56% · Match result
- Over 1.583% · Goals
- Yes60% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes Philadelphia Union the most likely of the three results, at 56% (we would not be surprised by anything from 45% to 67%). Most likely is not likely: at 56% this result does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees on the result and prices it at 57%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Philadelphia Union a 57% chance. Our model makes it 56%.
2Market
Open: 57% home · 21% draw · 22% away
Now: 57% home · 21% draw · 22% away
Solid: the market over 7 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
Philadelphia Union
Confirmed · 4-4-2
- F. Westfield — out (International duty)
- D. Jean Jacques — out (International duty)
- A. Blake — out (International duty)
- E. Davis III — out (Injury)
- J. Sery Larsen — out (Shoulder Injury)
- O. Makhanya — out (Yellow Cards)
- E. Alladoh — out (Personal Reasons)
- C. Sullivan — out (International duty)
- N. Pierre — out (International duty)
- P. Ndinga — out (Hamstring Injury)
FC Cincinnati
Confirmed · 3-5-2
- M. Robinson — out (International duty)
- E. Echenique — out (Inactive)
- K. Denkey — out (International duty)
- A. Chirila — out (International duty)
- O. Nwobodo — out (Red Card)
- K. Fletcher — out (Knee Injury)
- M. Miazga — out (Yellow Cards)
- A. Powell — out (Leg Injury)
- R. Celentano — out (Leg Injury)
- P. Bucha — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
Philadelphia UnionWWDDW
- Sat 5 Sep · H v CF Montreal 2–0
- Sat 29 Aug · A v New York Red Bulls 3–1(xG 2.5–2.0)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v Austin 1–1
- Wed 19 Aug · H v Inter Miami 2–2
- Sun 16 Aug · A v New York City FC 3–2
FC CincinnatiLDWDW
- Sun 30 Aug · A v Nashville SC 0–4(xG 1.9–1.8)
- Sat 22 Aug · H v Seattle Sounders 1–1
- Wed 19 Aug · H v New York City FC 2–1
- Sat 15 Aug · A v Orlando City SC 1–1
- Sat 1 Aug · H v San Jose Earthquakes 4–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- Philadelphia Union have won 3 of their last 5.
- Philadelphia Union have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 3 of Philadelphia Union's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Philadelphia Union's last 5.
- Philadelphia Union kept a clean sheet in 1 of their last 5.
- FC Cincinnati have won 2 of their last 5.
- FC Cincinnati have scored in 4 of their last 5.
- 3 of FC Cincinnati's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 4 of FC Cincinnati's last 5.
- FC Cincinnati kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
No prior meetings on record.
7Context
Philadelphia Union
Rest: 4 days · 2 matches in 14d
FC Cincinnati
Rest: 11 days · 1 match in 14d
Subaru Park, Philadelphia · Referee: J. Dickerson
8Red flags
Wide interval
The model's confidence interval is wide.
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Common questions
- Who will win Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati?
- Our model makes Philadelphia Union the most likely result at 56%. Most likely is not likely — at 56% it does not happen 44% of the time. The market agrees, pricing it at 57%.
- Will both teams score in Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 60% chance, against 40% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati?
- Philadelphia Union's reported absences and doubts include F. Westfield, D. Jean Jacques, A. Blake, E. Davis III and 6 others. FC Cincinnati's include M. Robinson, E. Echenique, K. Denkey, A. Chirila and 6 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati?
- Philadelphia Union line up in a 4-4-2, FC Cincinnati in a 3-5-2. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.