Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 23
New York City FCvNashville SC
New York City FC
Nashville SC·
0 – 0 (FT)
1Headline
What we think
- New York City FC41% · Match result
- Over 1.576% · Goals
- Yes54% · Both teams to score
Recommended bet: none on this match
We weighed 7 priced outcomes on this match and none of them cleared the bar we set. Most matches end here, and a page that found a bet in every fixture would not be worth reading.
Our forecast makes New York City FC the most likely of the three results, at 41% (we would not be surprised by anything from 32% to 50%). Most likely is not likely: at 41% this result does not happen 59% of the time. We disagree with the market, which makes Nashville SC the most likely result instead, and prices ours at 31%.
Verify this forecast → Published Fri 4 Sep, sealed in our append-only record — we can't change it now.
On goals we are saying nothing today: this market did not pass our own calibration checks, and a number we cannot stand behind is worse than no number.
For comparison, the market gives Nashville SC a 43% chance. Our model makes it 31%.
2Market
Open: 38% home · 26% draw · 36% away
Now: 31% home · 26% draw · 43% away
Moved −7pp — the market moved away from New York City FC
Solid: the market over 9 captures. Dashed: our forecast, which does not move. Scaled 0–100%, so a line that looks flat is a price that barely moved rather than one we stopped watching.
Match result
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 2.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 1.5
■ ours · ■ market
Goals over 3.5
Withheld: this market failed our own calibration checks, so we are not showing a number we do not trust. The price is still below.
■ ours · ■ market
Both teams to score
■ ours · ■ market
Gap is our probability minus the market's. A large one means we disagree with the price, not that we are right — whether we have been is published per market on the accuracy page. A market with no price is one we hold no odds for yet.
3Availability
New York City FC
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- A. O'Neill — out (International duty)
- T. Gray — out (International duty)
- K. Parks — out (Injury)
- Talles Magno — out (Muscle Injury)
- K. Trewin — out (Ankle Injury)
- M. Ilenic — out (International duty)
- M. Freese — out (International duty)
Nashville SC
Confirmed · 4-3-3
- P. Yazbek — out (International duty)
- X. Valdez — out (International duty)
- C. Applewhite — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- R. Baker-Whiting — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- E. Tagseth — out (Leg Injury)
- S. Surridge — out (Back Injury)
- W. Madrigal — out (Lower-Body Injury)
- B. Schwake — out (International duty)
- A. Qasem — out (International duty)
4Form
The five matches each side played before this one, with expected goals where we have them. xG is shown as absent rather than zero when it was never measured — matches played before we began collecting statistics have none.
New York City FCDDLLD
- Sat 29 Aug · A v Toronto FC 1–1(xG 0.4–0.8)
- Sun 23 Aug · A v New England Revolution 1–1
- Wed 19 Aug · A v FC Cincinnati 1–2
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Philadelphia Union 2–3
- Fri 31 Jul · H v Toronto FC 1–1
Nashville SCWWWWD
- Sun 30 Aug · H v FC Cincinnati 4–0(xG 1.8–1.9)
- Sun 23 Aug · H v Columbus Crew 3–2
- Wed 19 Aug · A v New York Red Bulls 1–0
- Sun 16 Aug · H v Inter Miami 4–1
- Sat 1 Aug · A v DC United 2–2
5Trends
How each side has been going — every figure is out of the games actually played, not a run chosen to flatter. How the two have met is in the head-to-head below.
- New York City FC have won 0 of their last 5.
- New York City FC have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 2 of New York City FC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 5 of New York City FC's last 5.
- New York City FC kept a clean sheet in 0 of their last 5.
- Nashville SC have won 4 of their last 5.
- Nashville SC have scored in 5 of their last 5.
- 4 of Nashville SC's last 5 went over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Nashville SC's last 5.
- Nashville SC kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5.
6Head-to-head
Only 1 prior meeting on record — thin sample.
- New York City FC W–D–L
- 0–0–1
- Over 2.5
- 1 of 1
- Both scored
- 1 of 1
- Nashville SC 2–1 New York City FC
7Context
New York City FC
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Nashville SC
Rest: 6 days · 2 matches in 14d
Yankee Stadium, New York · Referee: R. Mendoza
8Red flags
Thin head-to-head
These teams have met fewer than six times on record.
Model and market disagree
The model and the market disagree by more than ten points.
Common questions
- Who will win New York City FC vs Nashville SC?
- Our model makes New York City FC the most likely result at 41%. Most likely is not likely — at 41% it does not happen 59% of the time. The market instead favours Nashville SC at 43%.
- Will both teams score in New York City FC vs Nashville SC?
- Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance, against 46% that at least one side is kept out.
- What is the team news for New York City FC vs Nashville SC?
- New York City FC's reported absences and doubts include A. O'Neill, T. Gray, K. Parks, Talles Magno and 3 others. Nashville SC's include P. Yazbek, X. Valdez, C. Applewhite, R. Baker-Whiting and 5 others. Each player's status is in the availability section above.
- What are the confirmed lineups for New York City FC vs Nashville SC?
- New York City FC line up in a 4-3-3, Nashville SC in a 4-3-3. The full starting elevens and substitutes are in the availability section.